Urgent reaction needed on climate and energy, says expert
From the May 2007 edition of Agriculture Today.
Any business prepared to risk becoming unprofitable before reacting to climate change is already in trouble, according to one of Australia’s leading climatologists, Dr Graeme Pearman.
Urgent action is needed to adapt to and mitigate against climate change, Dr Pearman (pictured) said, but the flip side is that there are potential positives for energy generation in agriculture.
The former chief of CSIRO atmospheric research, now a consultant and interim director of Monash University Sustainability, has urged farmers to heed the warnings before it is too late.
Dr Pearman says polling of farmers in NSW and Victoria reflects climate change as their most important concern.
“They feel that the impact will be so great, that even if they are not sure of the science, they must respond now to manage the risk,” he said.
“The prognosis for Australia is warmer temperatures, less rain combined with higher evaporation - generally less water available.
“If we can anticipate the kind of changes that will occur, farmers can adapt their operations for future resilience.”
He encourages farmers to work with Catchment Management Authorities and other organisations that are trying to integrate regionally-based information.
“Recent science strongly reinforces the view that global warming is occurring and it is primarily due to greenhouse gases from human activity.
“Moving to lower carbon emissions from energy generation is inevitably going to mean that fuels are going to get more expensive,” he said.
“Farmers should look at the proportion of their total annual costs that are going to energy, which can be quite large, and they need to manage that risk.”
Dr Pearman is adamant there needs to be a revolution in the way we source and use energy.
“Efficiency could be improved by using different kinds of equipment, or with different fuels - even biofuels - which may recycle carbon,” he said.
However, he warned of potential pitfalls.
“Deciding whether and what kind of biofuel market farmers use is very complicated and if they don’t make the right decision they could finish up being a contributor to greenhouse emissions.
Dr Pearman said carbon trading meant the cost of delivering those fuels might turn out to be higher than the money generated out of them.
“My warning on this is not to be negative because I think there will be mixtures of the right choices of fuels from crops, and the right kind of processing and distribution that will be both economically positive and climate positive.
“What I don’t want is for people on the land, who are already suffering, to go into this kind of investment and then five or 10 years time find that a carbon trading regime is not a profitable business.”
“When we look at all the options, whether it is clean coal, nuclear power, solar energy, wind energy, biofuels, whatever it might be, there are uncertainties about all of them.
“Therefore we can’t be dogmatic about what to do - a portfolio approach using rigorous terms of reference against which we assess the value or opportunity of the various alternatives is what’s needed.”
Contact Dr Graeme Pearman, Melbourne, (03) 9773 0049.
