Helping agriculture remain viable
It will take into account the probability of particular climate events occurring over a growing season for a particular location, identifying risks and opportunities facing different industries and regions.
The project’s aim is to develop a climate change adaptation tool, initially for policy makers, but with the output informing farmers and available via the internet.
"Climate variables incorporated include cumulative rainfall and temperature," NSW Department of Primary Industries (DPI) climate science research leader, Dr Helen Fairweather, said.
The aim is to have information available to the wheat industry in NSW by the end of 2009, with other industries following soon after.
Using existing data on wheat yields, scientists are able to map the probability of certain areas generating above or below average yields in a particular year.
"There is a critical yield level required for viable production," Dr Fairweather said.
"Identifying the critical yield levels for each region and looking at how these yields might be affected by key climate variables will help us understand the vulnerability of different regions to climate change," she said.
Dr Fairweather said while obvious geographic, soil and management differences contributed to yield variability, climate also had an impact.
Early analyses indicate changes in cumulative rainfall predicted to occur as a result of climate changes will affect the distribution of yields.
The same is true for the impact of increased temperatures.
The first results will be available by the middle of this year.
NSW DPI and the NSW Department of Environment and Climate Change are funding the $550,000 project.
For information about this and other NSW DPI climate change research projects, see www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/research/topics/climate-change
Contact Dr Helen Fairweather, (02) 6881 1211, helen.fairweather@dpi.nsw.gov.au