Summary

The wool industry in western NSW faces the dual challenge of increasing profitability while reducing its environmental footprint. Higher stocking rates in better seasons can contribute substantially to enterprise viability, but grazing pressure during drier periods is a major source of degradation, animal welfare problems and financial stress. Managing climate risk is an important issue for both economic and ecological sustainability.

This project showed that seasonal risk assessments based on the ‘SOI phase system’ have useful skill in the late winter-spring period in western NSW, in keeping with similar findings elsewhere in eastern Australia. Skill at these times was shown to be enhanced for assessments based on simulated pasture growth compared with rainfall alone. Seasonal risk assessments at these times can contribute to important tactical decisions regarding livestock sales or purchases, or in-crop management.

At other times, when seasonal risk assessments have little skill, calendar-based trigger points – dates at which the potential for pasture growth over the following three-months is minimal or maximal – may be used to assist livestock management decisions. These dates can be determined from analysis of simulated, historical growth patterns and were confirmed for 19 locations throughout the project area in cooperation with participating landholders. Graziers modified the simulated growth pattern to fit their own local experience for a further 7 locations. The trigger point concept is novel in western NSW and most producers in the region should now be able to interpret these dates for their own property.

Throughout the project results were communicated to, and feedback received from, a network of 323 co-operators, mostly wool growers, through 9 newsletters and 15 workshops. This exchange was important in introducing wool producers to the concepts of probabilistic risk assessment and in understanding barriers to the adoption of the technology.

A Guide to Seasonal Risk Assessment in Western NSW is in preparation to extend the results of the project to the wider community. It contains a foreword over the Minister’s signature which will be submitted for approval at the appropriate time.