Available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/MF07110

Summary

The relationship between fisheries and climate has been given renewed emphasis in recent years owing to increasing concern regarding climate change. This relationship is particularly important for estuarine fisheries, where there are documented patterns between rainfall (which vary with climate change) and the productivity of fisheries. For example, the commercial catch of eastern school prawns (Metapenaeus macleayi) has been observed to increase whenever high rainfall occurs in northern New South Wales.

We developed a simulation model to analyse the eastern school prawn stock in the Clarence River under alternative river discharge scenarios, and examined the effectiveness of a series of management strategies under these scenarios. The model included the effect of rainfall on both the growth and movement of prawns. Higher rainfall than currently occurs generated a larger stock biomass and increased commercial catches, but this outcome did not occur all the time. We also concluded that the population does not appear to be over-exploited and that none of the three alternative management strategies that we considered performed better than the current application of fishing closures – even under a wide range of rainfall scenarios.