Welcome rain relieves seasonal conditions

21 Nov 2017

Welcoming Rain, Canola harvest

Following the dry start to spring, seasonal conditions improved for the state’s primary producers with average to above-average rainfall across most areas of NSW during October and good follow-up rain received in many areas in November.

NSW Department of Primary Industries (DPI) Seasonal Conditions Coordinator Ian McGowen said rainfall was above average across 55 per cent of the state, while 41 per cent received average rainfall.

“Most of the state received 25–100 mm during October,” Mr McGowen said.

“The north east of the state received the highest rainfall for the month, including areas of the north coast, northern tablelands, northern slopes and lower Hunter valley.

“The lowest rainfall of less than 25 mm occurred across areas of the far west and western Murray Valley.

“During October, daytime temperatures were more than 2-3ºC above average across most of southern, western and central NSW, while areas of the north and along the coast ranged from near-average to 2ºC above average.

“Summer growing and perennial pastures responded well to the improved soil moisture and warm temperatures.

“There was an increase in pasture growth across most of NSW, particularly in the north and north east. Growth improved markedly over areas of the slopes, tablelands, central to north coast, far north west, eastern Riverina and central west.

“Pasture growth remained slow across some areas of the north west, upper Hunter Valley, south east and south west of NSW.

“During October, topsoil moisture improved across most of NSW except areas of the far west, southern and central tablelands, south east and upper Hunter Valley. The greatest improvement was across areas of the north east.

“Harvest is mostly completed for crops in the north west plains and is underway in the western areas of central and southern NSW.   Yields have been affected by the dry conditions during winter and early spring and the frequent, severe frosts. The recent rainfall has caused delays in harvest.

“The oil contents are likely to be lower than normal in canola, but protein levels in wheat are likely to be higher.

“Prospects for dryland summer cropping across much of the north west improved on the October rainfall. However, widespread above average rainfall is needed through November and December to replenish depleted subsoil moisture reserves.

“Planting of irrigated cotton was well advanced by the end of the month in areas across the state, with the dry winter and early spring assisting ground preparation and warmer soil temperatures allowing timely sowing.”

The Bureau of Meteorology’s rainfall outlook for November to January indicates there is a near-equal chance of drier or wetter than normal conditions across most of NSW.

For daytime temperatures, there is a near equal chance of cooler or warmer than normal temperatures across most of NSW. Warmer than normal daytime temperatures are likely across areas of the south west, central coast and far south east.

Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal across much of NSW.

The Pacific Ocean remains in an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral state, with the outlook from most global climate models suggesting either a weak, potentially short-lived La Niña event or ENSO neutral conditions are possible during spring and summer.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s ENSO outlook status is at ‘La Niña watch’, indicating there is a 50 per cent chance of La Niña conditions developing.

While a late developing La Niña event may result in increased spring and summer rainfall, in the past such events have had variable effects. Indications from climate models are that above average rainfall is unlikely in this case.

Weak La Niña events can also increase the risk of heatwaves occurring.

Primary producers are encouraged to visit www.droughthub.nsw.gov.au for a range of services and support to assist farming families and farm businesses to prepare for dry seasonal conditions.

Media contact: Anne Brook (02) 6391 3686