NSW State Seasonal Update - January 2021



Prepared by NSW DPI

NSW overview

Recovery from the 2017-2020 drought event continued across most of NSW in January 2021. The NSW DPI Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) shows 98% of NSW is in the Recovery or Non-Drought categories. Storms supported recovery across most of NSW, however the high variability of summer rainfall and warm temperatures have slowed recovery in isolated areas. The official climate outlook indicates near equal to moderate probabilities of above median rainfall across NSW for the next three months.

With the 2020 winter crop harvest now complete, rainfall during the last two months has assisted summer crops across much of the state. Despite the recent rain, storage reservoirs and irrigation water availability in northern NSW remains low.

Pasture conditions in January supported drought recovery across most regions. However dryness and warm temperatures are drawing down stored soil moisture reserves in some areas.

While large areas of the state continue to recover from drought, the strength of the recovery remains inconsistent. Areas of concern include parts of Western and Northern NSW, as well as the southern Riverina and Murray. This is based on available monitoring of field conditions including vegetative remote sensing, and in particular the NSW farm dam survey. Currently, the farm dam survey indicates that surface water deficits are intensifying across much of Western NSW. Rainfall patterns have been highly variable and some farms still require consistent rainfall to build confidence of longer-term drought recovery during 2021.

The La Niña event in the tropical Pacific Ocean has likely reached its peak, however it is expected to remain as a dominant influence on Australian weather patterns until Autumn. La Niña typically increases the chance of higher than median rainfall across NSW, though rain variability or irregularity can be expected due to the influence of localised short-term synoptic weather patterns. The official Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) 3-month Seasonal Outlook released on 4 February 2021 indicates near equal to moderate probabilities of above median rainfall across NSW.

The CDI and its individual rainfall, soil moisture and crop/pasture growth metrics are leading biophysical indices of drought. While the CDI currently points to a strengthening recovery and transition out of biophysical drought for large areas of NSW, production and economic responses lag behind the CDI. Full drought recovery can take 6-18 months depending on a number of influences including rainfall. Further information about the correct interpretation of the CDI at a region and industry level is provided in the regional breakdown section of this report.

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

It is important to recognise the CDI provides an aggregated view of the State, and that on-ground conditions can be different to those displayed in the maps. They provide an ‘on average’ view of a particular region only. To report local conditions, use DPI Farm Tracker.

Rainfall

The rainfall anomaly data shows the difference between total monthly rainfall and the long-term average (1961-1990; Figure 2a). Most of NSW received near or above average rainfall for January. In some parts of central NSW the anomaly was 50-100mm above average. Large areas of north-eastern NSW received less than average rainfall, though the mid-north coast was an exception where the anomaly was >50mm above average.

Most of NSW received more than 25mm of rainfall in January (Figure 2b). The highest totals occurred over parts of the north coast (200-300mm).  Lower totals (less than 25mm) were received in parts of the Western and Murray LLS regions.

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Temperature

Maximum temperatures in January were average to near-average across most of the state (Figure 3a). Some areas in north-western NSW received temperatures that were 1-2°C higher than average. The average maximum temperatures recorded in January (Figure 3b) were warmest across northern-western NSW (above 33°C). Elsewhere temperatures ranged between 27-33°C, while the tablelands, the south-east and alpine regions experienced lower maximum average temperatures between 21-27°C.

Minimum temperature anomalies were also average to near-average across most of the state, however parts of north-west NSW received temperatures that were 1-2°C higher than average (Figure 3c). Most of NSW experienced average minimum temperatures above 15°C during the month (Figure 3d). Parts of the Central and Southern Tablelands received lower minimum average temperatures between 9-15°C, while much of northern-western NSW received minimum temperatures warmer than 18°C.

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Anomaly

The seasonal Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, Figure 4) indicates that plant greenness levels are close to, or above normal across most of NSW for the November to January period. Lower than normal plant greenness remains evident in some areas of the Central Tablelands, South East and Alpine areas which were affected by the 2019/20 bushfires.

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

NSW Farm Dam Survey

The data from the NSW Farm Dam Survey (Figure 5) indicates large areas where farm dam levels are less than 20% of capacity, especially across the western half of NSW. The data indicates the need for further rain to adequately account for evaporation and use patterns across large areas of the state. Farm dam levels tend to be at higher capacities further east.

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Soil Water Index

The Soil Water Index (SWI, Figure 6) indicates the majority of NSW is currently at average or above average levels. Isolated parts of western, northern and southern NSW continue to experience below average SWI values.

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Plant Growth Index

The Plant Growth Index (PGI, Figure 7) response generally mirrors the SWI with large areas of the NSW in the average or above average category at the end of January. Some isolated parts of the south east and north east continue to experience below average plant growth values.

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Rainfall Index

The Rainfall Index (RI, Figure 8) indicates that NSW is currently in the average or above average range. This reflects the cumulative rainfall totals that have been received during the last 12 months.

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Drought Direction Index

The Drought Direction Index (DDI, Figure 9) tracks the 150-day trend of daily rainfall totals. The DDI indicates that the majority of the state ranges from a neutral to strong wetting trend and has expanded since the December Update. Areas in western NSW and parts of the Central and Southern Tablelands are showing a neutral to weak drying trend. The Alpine region is showing a strong drying trend.

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Changes in the individual drought indicators may have occurred since this update was released. For the most current information, please visit DroughtHub.

CDI status for the regions

Figure 10 displays the CDI status for each individual Local Land Services regions to 31 January 2021. The following regional descriptions are based on data available until the end of January 2021.

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Murray and Riverina regions

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI; Figure 11) shows that the Riverina and Murray Local Land Services (LLS) regions continue to transition through a recovery from the 2017-20 drought event. The entire region is currently in the Non-Drought or Recovery CDI categories (Figure 11). January rainfall provided further confidence across much of the region and the continuation of rainfall during 2021 will assist a long-term recovery.

The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 12) shows that the region was experiencing near normal to higher than normal plant greenness levels for the November to January period. Greenness levels are more variable in the southern parts of the Murray LLS region and in north-western areas of the Riverina LLS region. The impact of the 2019/2020 bush fires is still evident south of Tumut.

The time series charts (Figure 13) show the individual response of the drought indices for Hay, Finley, Temora and Moulamein. The charts show that conditions steadily improved during 2020 and highlights the effectiveness of more consistent follow-up rainfall over recent months. At Moulamein, the improvement to conditions occurred later in 2020 due to lower rainfall, especially in the winter period. Rain in mid Spring improved the indices. Follow up rainfall will likely still be required at Moulamein and Finley to maintain the improved conditions.

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months and shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Western region

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI; Figure 14) shows that the Western Local Land Services region continues to see an improvement in conditions. The area in Non-Drought expanded since the December update. The region experienced isolated storm rainfall during the month and this will initiate or continue relief to drought conditions across the region. Despite this, the rainfall patterns remained variable and the region continues to experience warm summer temperatures. On-ground reports continue to highlight a high variation in conditions.

The NSW DPI advises that conditions remain variable in the Western LLS region. Rainfall over recent months has begun recovery, however further rainfall is needed, particularly in areas where improvements have been more recent. The NSW Farm Dam survey (Figure 5) also indicates that farm dam levels remain well below capacity across much of the region. Drought management continues amid hot conditions and further follow-up rain remains a key focus to secure a longer-term transition to drought recovery.

The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 15) shows variability in plant greenness levels across the region compared to long-term expectations for the November to January period. Some districts continue to experience well above normal levels of greenness while other districts continue to experience below normal levels of greenness (brown areas on the map). Rainfall has been lower, later or less effective in these areas.

The time series charts (Figure 16) show the individual response of the drought indices for Bourke, Ivanhoe and Wentworth. Conditions generally improved at all locations during 2020. All locations would benefit from more rain to provide more confidence of a recovery to drought. To access a time series for your Parish, visit the Combined Drought Indicator website.

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months. This is then ranked against all other 12-month periods. This shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

North West, Northern Tablelands and North Coast regions

The majority of the North West, Northern Tablelands and North Coast Local Land Services regions continue to be in the Non-Drought or Recovery categories of the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI; Figure 17). Despite beneficial rain received during the last two months, the area in the Drought Affected category has increased. This highlights that more rain is needed for a full transition to longer-term drought recovery. Elsewhere large areas continue to build recovery from the 2017-20 drought event, however relatively dry conditions in January have caused conditions to plateau in some areas.

The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 18) indicated near-normal to positive greenness anomalies across most of the region for the November to January period. The plant greenness anomaly is below normal levels in some western and northern parts. The NDIV data indicates that Tenterfield region, which was impacted by drought for longer during 2020, has benefited from recent rainfall which has been effective in initialising a plant greenness response.

The time series charts (Figure 19) show the individual response of the drought indices for Moree, Walgett, Tenterfield and Lismore. The drought indices have gradually improved at Walgett and Moree where the continuation of follow-up rain has maintained the recovery from drought. Lismore highlights the importance of follow-up rain. Prior to large rain totals received in December 2020, rainfall totals were low since late summer in 2020. This dry period caused the agronomic indicators to plateau. Tenterfield has experienced slight improvements to the rainfall index over the last six months though continues to lag in drought recovery. The rainfall received during the last two months will assist, however further rainfall is needed to build upon the recent improvements. The NSW DPI continues to monitor the area closely.

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months and shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Central Tablelands, Central West, Hunter and Greater Sydney regions

The Central West, Central Tablelands, Hunter and Greater Sydney Local Land Services (LLS) regions continued a strong transition through drought recovery during January. Consistent follow-up rainfall since Autumn in 2020 has aided recovery in all four LLS regions (Figure 20). These regions experienced further rainfall in January, however rain totals were lower in some northern parts of the Central West and Central Tablelands LLS regions during the month.

The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 21) continues to show above average levels of plant greenness across large areas of the regions. The data indicates that improvements gained from rainfall received in 2020 have been maintained in most areas at the end of January. The bushfire impact is still evident in parts of the tablelands.

The time series charts (Figure 22) show the individual response of the drought indices for Cowra, Condobolin and Singleton. Rainfall since Autumn 2020 has improved the indicators at all locations and shows that drought recovery remained strong throughout Spring. The strength of recovery has been carried through summer and into 2021.

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months. and shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

South East region

Conditions continued to improve across the South East Local Land Services region during January. The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI; Figure 23) shows an expansion in the area of the Non-Drought category during the month. The strong drought recovery across northern parts of the region that commenced in winter 2020 has continued during the month.

The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 24) showed higher than expected levels of plant greenness across most of the region for the November to January period. The areas impacted by bushfires continued to have well below average plant greenness.

The time series charts (Figure 25) show the individual response of the drought indices at Bega, Goulburn and Cooma. The charts show the gradual improvement in conditions, however the agronomic recovery at Cooma and Bega has lagged in comparison to Goulburn. Despite improvements, the areas in the south-east of the region would benefit from further follow-up rainfall; a longer duration of Intense Drought conditions persisted in this area later during 2020. The NSW DPI continues to monitor the area closely.

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months and shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Official national outlook

The latest official national outlook was released by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) on 4 February 2021. February to April rainfall is likely to be close to or above median for much of Australia, though a higher probability of above median rainfall is indicated for Western Australia, across the north-eastern tropics and for parts of south-eastern Australia.

Maximum temperatures for February to April are likely to be above average for most parts of Australia's coastline, Queensland, and across Tasmania. Below average maximum temperatures are indicated from north-west to south-east Western Australia. Minimum are very likely to be above average across most of Australia, and close to average in south-east Western Australia and western South Australia.

NSW outlook

Most of NSW has a near equal to moderate chance of exceeding median rainfall in the February to April period (Figure 26). The chance of above median rainfall is higher in the south-east of NSW. The temperature outlook indicates a near equal to moderate chance of exceeding median daytime temperatures across most of the state (Figure 27). The probability of above median daytime temperatures is higher along the coast, but lower across southern NSW. There is a moderate to high probability of warmer than median overnight temperatures across the state. Probabilities of above median overnight temperatures are highest along the coast and across parts of south-eastern and north-eastern NSW. (Figure 28).

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Global climate drivers

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Outlook was released on 2 February 2021. The atmospheric and oceanic patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean indicate that the 2020–21 La Niña event is likely to have peaked. However conditions generally associated with La Niña, such as above average rainfall in eastern and northern Australia, are expected to continue into early autumn. Model outlooks indicate a return to more neutral conditions during late summer or early autumn.

Southern Oscillation Index

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the 30 days ending 31 January was +16.5 (Figure 29). The 90-day SOI value was +14.8. The 30-day values have decreased from a peak of around +20 in mid-January.

Sustained positive values of the SOI greater than +7 are typical of a La Niña event.

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Sea surface temperatures (SST)

The monthly sea surface temperatures (SST) were cooler than average across most of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, and south of the equator during January (Figure 30). Warm anomalies remain around the Maritime Continent and in the waters close to of western and south-eastern Australia.

The latest values of the three NINO indices in the tropical Pacific for the week ending 31 January were: NINO3 −0.3 °C, NINO3.4 −0.7 °C, NINO4 −0.8 °C. All three NINO indices have warmed compared to two weeks ago.

Persistent NINO3 or NINO3.4 values warmer than +0.8 °C are typical of El Niño, while persistent values cooler than −0.8 °C typically indicate La Niña.

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Sea sub-surface temperatures

The four-month sequence of equatorial Pacific sub-surface temperature anomalies (to 26 January) shows the top 200 m of the equatorial Pacific east of around 160°E is cooler than average.  The strength and extent of cooler than average water has remained stable since September.

Warm anomalies persist across large parts of the column depth west of the Date Line. These warm anomalies have strengthened month-on-month since October.

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Indian Ocean (IOD)

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The latest weekly value of the IOD index to 31 January was −0.07 °C. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April. When the monsoon trough shifts southwards into the southern hemisphere at this time of year, it changes the broadscale wind patterns. This means that the IOD pattern is unable to form.

Southern Ocean (Southern Annular Mode – SAM)

The Southern Annual Mode (SAM) is neutral but is expected to become positive over the next week, before returning to neutral values around mid-February.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) refers to the north-south shift of rain-bearing westerly winds and weather systems in the Southern Ocean compared to the usual position. This indicator can be quite volatile and generally influences weather conditions on 1-3 week timescales. SAM forecasts are highly uncertain beyond 2-3 weeks.

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

How does it work?

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Much of the information in the Seasonal Conditions Report is sourced from the NSW DPI Enhanced Drought Information System (EDIS) ™. The EDIS system is currently available in prototype form and is subject to an intensive ground truthing process. For more information, visit the interactive website via DroughtHub.

EDIS is an ongoing project aimed at improving the quality and timeliness of efforts to monitor conditions across the state. Key features of the system are:

  • It tracks drought by using four indicators; rainfall, soil water, plant growth, as well as tracing rainfall trends. Agronomic conditions have equal value to rainfall recorded at meteorological stations.
  • The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) brings this information together and has been designed to characterise developing drought conditions. The key purpose for building the CDI was as a drought early warning system.
  • The rainfall, soil moisture and plant growth indicators in EDIS account for conditions over a 12-month window. This provides a compromise between a highly sensitive indicator (e.g. six months) and a less sensitive indicator (e.g. 24 months).
  • Climate and remote sensing data drive the information system at a high resolution, but the CDI is reported at a Parish level.
  • Because of its configuration and purpose, there will be differences to the indicator used in the National Drought Monitoring Framework (the Australian Rainfall Deficiency Analyser) which relies on rainfall alone.
  • The CDI has three drought categories that characterise NSW according to drought intensity as well as the main drivers of a drought event (meteorological, hydrological and agronomic). DPI considers areas Drought Affected to be experiencing a drought event.
  • The Drought Affected category encompasses a wide range of conditions from the very early stages of drought entry through to a drought event becoming intense. This enables the drought monitoring system to detect a drought event early. It is also possible to stay in the Drought Affected category for some period of time.

The way in which the indicators are combined to form the CDI is described in Table 1 below.

Table 1: Description of the Combined Drought Indicator framework

CDI Phase

Technical definition

Description - typical field conditions

Intense Drought

All three indicators (rainfall, soil water, plant growth) are below the 5th percentile

Ground cover is very low, soil moisture stores are exhausted and rainfall has been minimal over the past 6-12 months.

Drought

At least one indicator is below the 5th percentile

Conditions may be very dry, or agronomic production is tight (low soil moisture or plant growth). It is possible to be in Drought when there has been some modest growth, or a few falls of rain.

Drought Affected (intensifying)

At least one indicator is below the 30th percentile and the rainfall trend is negative over the past 90 days.

Conditions are deteriorating; production is beginning to get tighter. Ground cover may be modest, but growth is moderate to low for the time of year. When indicators are close to the Drought threshold drought conditions are severe.

Drought Affected (weakening)

At least one indicator is below the 30th percentile and the rainfall trend is positive over the past 90 days.

Production conditions are getting tighter, but there have been some falls of rain over the past month. It is rare to enter the Recovering phase from the Non-Drought category; Usually there is a quick (1-2 week) transition into Drought Affected or Drought. When indicators are close to the Drought threshold drought conditions are severe.

Recovering

All indicators are below the 50th percentile but above the 30th percentile

Production is occurring but would be considered ‘below average’. Full production recovery may not have occurred if this area has experienced drought conditions over the past six months.

Non-drought

At least one indicator is above the 50th percentile.

Production is not limited by climatic conditions.

The NSW State Seasonal Update is provided each month by the NSW DPI Climate Branch.

Information used in this report was primarily sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (Columbia University), Geoscience Australia’s Digital Earth Australia Program, and NSW Department of Primary Industries.

Maps in this document contain data which is © Spatial Services – NSW Department of Finance, Services and Innovation (2020), Panorama Avenue, Bathurst 2795 and data which is © Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne. All rights reserved.

The seasonal outlooks presented in this report are obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and other sources (including World Meteorological Organisation Global Producing Centres). These outlooks are general statements about the likelihood (chance) of (for example) exceeding the median rainfall or minimum or maximum temperatures. Such probability outlooks should not be used as categorical or definitive forecasts, but should be regarded as tools to assist in risk management and decision making. Changes in seasonal outlooks may have occurred since this report was released.

All climate and remote sensing input data is supplied to the Enhanced Drought Information System ™ under the Australian Creative Commons Licence (CCY 4.0) and is made available by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network.