NSW State Seasonal Update - March 2021



Prepared by NSW DPI

NSW overview

NSW climate was heavily influenced by an active tropical weather system and a blocking high in the Tasman during March 2021. This led to widespread heavy rainfall across the state with flooding in some coastal, tablelands and plains regions across north-eastern NSW. The wet conditions continued the widespread recovery from the 2017-2020 drought event, and with improved stored soil moisture and surface water availability in many regions there is a strong production outlook. Despite the strong state-wide forward scenario, parts of south-west, south-east and north-eastern NSW continue to experience a variable, weak or delayed recovery. Further rainfall is needed to reduce risk of ‘false recovery’ in these areas.

March rainfall provides early sowing opportunities for the 2021 winter crop season in most of the grain regions. Stored soil water levels are relatively high as the main crop planting window approaches in coming weeks. Reservoir storage levels increased during the month, including in the Northern irrigation areas where storage levels have been low for several months.

The NSW DPI Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) shows 96% of NSW is in the Recovery or Non-Drought categories, although there are isolated areas in the north, far and south west which are in the Drought Affected category. The NSW Farm Dam Survey has shown localised improvement since February and reflects the rainfall received in March. Despite improvements, dam levels in parts of southern and south-western NSW remain low.

The seasonal rainfall outlook points to an increased likelihood of dry conditions over the coming Autumn-Winter season. The latest Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Seasonal Outlook indicates a near equal to moderate chance of below median rainfall across NSW for the next three months. The La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean has concluded, and most global climate drivers are in a neutral state. The neutral status is expected to remain throughout autumn. Historically, forecast skill for the seasonal outlook is lower during autumn. It is important to monitor weather over the coming weeks, particularly in areas that experienced flooding in March 2021. The tropical systems that led to extremely high March rainfall in NSW remain active.

The CDI and its individual rainfall, soil moisture and crop/pasture growth metrics are leading biophysical indices of drought. While the CDI points to a strong recovery and transition out of biophysical drought for much of NSW, production and economic responses usually lag the CDI. Full drought recovery can occur over an extended time and depends on several factors including rainfall. Further information about the correct interpretation of the CDI at a region and industry level is provided in the regional breakdown section of this report.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

It is important to recognise the CDI provides an aggregated view of the State, and that on-ground conditions can be different to those displayed in the maps. They provide an ‘on average’ view of a particular region only. To report local conditions, use DPI Farm Tracker.

Rainfall

The rainfall anomaly data shows the difference between total monthly rainfall and the long-term average (1961-1990; Figure 2a). Most of NSW received more that 25mm above the March average. The largest anomalies of >400mm above average were received in parts of the mid-north coast region. Rainfall was near to below average in south-western NSW.

The highest rainfall totals (600-800mm) were received across the mid North Coast region (Figure 2b). Most other coastal areas received 300-600mm in the month. Other parts of NSW generally received between 25-200mm of rainfall. West and south-western NSW experienced dry conditions with some areas receiving less than 25mm of rain.

Rainfall accumulation during the 2021 calendar year has been near or above average across most of NSW. Most of coastal NSW has received accumulated totals of 400-1200mm for the year (Figure 2c) while central areas west of the Great Dividing Range have received 200-400mm. Large parts of the of Western LLS region have received up to 200mm in the year, however the far south-west area has accumulated lower totals between 25-50mm of rain.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Temperature

Maximum temperatures in March were below average across NSW (Figure 3a). The average March maximum temperatures (Figure 3b) were warmest across northern-western NSW (above 30°C) and coolest in the Tablelands, south-east and alpine regions (between 15-24°C).

Minimum temperature anomalies were below average across most of the state except for parts of northern-eastern NSW which received temperatures that were 1-2°C higher than average (Figure 3c). Most of NSW experienced average minimum temperatures above 12°C during the month (Figure 3d). Temperatures were cooler in the state’s Tablelands areas extending to the southern areas of the Murray LLS regions. The higher altitudes in the Central Tablelands and Alpine areas received minimum temperatures of 3-9°C.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Anomaly

The seasonal Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, Figure 4) indicates that plant greenness levels are close to, or above normal across most of NSW for the January to March period. Improvement to the NDVI from the widespread rainfall in late March will likely become apparent in next month’s Update. Lower than normal plant greenness remains evident in some areas of the Central Tablelands, South East and Alpine areas that were affected by the 2019/20 bushfires.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

NSW Farm Dam Survey

The NSW Farm Dam survey (Figure 5) indicates farm dam levels tend to be at higher capacities in central and eastern NSW. There are large areas where farm dam levels are less than 20% of capacity, especially across western, southern and parts of northern NSW. It is expected that improvements arising from the widespread rainfall in late March will be reflected in next month’s Update.

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Significant Weather

March Rainfall

Above average rainfall was recorded across most of the State. Rainfall for the month was in the highest 10% of historical records (decile 10) for most of the eastern, and northern NSW. Several sites in these regions recorded their highest total March monthly rainfall on record. The rain resulted in extensive flooding throughout eastern areas of NSW.

Soil Water Index

The Soil Water Index (SWI, Figure 6) indicates the majority of NSW is currently at average or above average levels. Isolated parts of western, southern and northern NSW are experiencing below average SWI values. The area in the below average category in Northern NSW slightly decreased since the last update. DPI continues to monitor conditions closely across NSW.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Plant Growth Index

The Plant Growth Index (PGI, Figure 7) indicates that the majority of NSW is currently at average or above average levels at the end of February. Some isolated parts of the south-east and north-east continue to experience below average to extremely low plant growth values.

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Rainfall Index

The Rainfall Index (RI, Figure 8) indicates that NSW is currently in the average or above average range. This reflects the cumulative rainfall totals that have been received during the last 12 months.

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Drought Direction Index

The Drought Direction Index (DDI, Figure 9) tracks the 150-day trend of daily rainfall totals. The DDI indicates that the majority of the state ranges from a neutral to strong wetting trend. Areas in western NSW, and a small region to the north-east of Armidale, are showing a neutral to weak drying trend.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Changes in the individual drought indicators may have occurred since this update was released. For the most current information, please visit DroughtHub.

CDI status for the regions

Figure 10 displays the CDI status for each individual Local Land Services regions to 31 March 2021. The following regional descriptions are based on data available until the end of March 2021.

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Murray and Riverina regions

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI; Figure 11) shows that most of the Riverina and Murray Local Land Services (LLS) regions continue recovery from the 2017-20 drought event. Western parts of the Murray LLS region remain in the Drought Affected category and follow-up rainfall is needed during 2021 to increase confidence of longer-term recovery. The DPI continues to monitor conditions closely.

The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 12) shows that most of the region was experiencing near to or higher than normal plant greenness levels for the January to March period. Plant greenness levels are slightly lower than expected closer to the Victorian border in the Murray LLS region. The impact of the 2019/2020 bush fires is still evident south of Tumut.

The time series charts (Figure 13) show the individual response of the drought indices for Hay, Finley, Temora and Moulamein. The charts show that conditions steadily improved during 2020 and highlights the effectiveness of more consistent follow-up rainfall over recent months. At Moulamein and Finley, the improvement to conditions occurred later in 2020 due to lower rainfall, especially in the winter period. Rain in mid Spring improved the indices, however more is needed to support a transition through drought recovery in 2021.

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months and shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.auFor an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Western region

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI; Figure 14) shows that the Western Local Land Services region continues to show variability in conditions. Rainfall in the eastern and northern parts of the region during March will continue to provide relief to drought conditions across the region. Further south and west, conditions were dry during March.

The NSW DPI advises that conditions remain variable in the Western LLS region. Rainfall over recent months has begun recovery, however further rainfall is needed, particularly in south-western parts of the region. The NSW Farm Dam survey (Figure 5) indicates that farm dam levels remain well below capacity across much of the region. Further follow-up rain is still needed for a longer-term recovery from drought.

The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 15) shows variability in plant greenness levels across the region compared to long-term expectations for the January to March period. Some districts continue to experience well above normal levels of greenness while other districts experience below normal levels of greenness. Rainfall has been lower, later or less effective in these areas.

The time series charts (Figure 16) show the individual response of the drought indices for Bourke, Ivanhoe and Wentworth. Conditions generally improved at all locations during 2020, however have dried during the first three months of 2021. The DPI continues to monitor conditions closely. To access a time series for your Parish, visit the Combined Drought Indicator website.

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months. This is then ranked against all other 12-month periods. This shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

North West, Northern Tablelands and North Coast regions

Conditions are variable across the North West, Northern Tablelands and North Coast Local Land Services regions, as indicated by the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI; Figure 17). Despite beneficial rain during the month, there are still areas in the Drought Affected category. The Soil Water Index remains below average in many northern areas of these regions. The risk of a “false recovery” remains in some areas, though the rainfall received in March will provide relief from drought as winter approaches. This situation highlights the importance of follow-up rain for a full transition to longer-term drought recovery.

Despite some rain in February and the occurrence of high totals in March, some areas north of Armidale were re-classified into the ‘Drought Affected’ category in the last week. This reflects the weak recovery from the 2017-2020 drought being experienced in these areas. As winter approaches and pasture production becomes limited by cold temperatures across the Tablelands, it is important to continue to monitor conditions closely in this part of the State.

The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 18) indicated near-normal to above expected greenness anomalies across most of the region for the January to March period. The plant greenness anomaly remains below normal levels in parts of central and northern areas of the Northwest LLS region.

The time series charts (Figure 19) show the individual response of the drought indices for Moree, Walgett, Tenterfield and Lismore. The most recent trends observed in the charts at the end of March show an improvement in the Rainfall Index. This is expected to provide gradual improvements in the Soil Water and Plant Growth indices over coming weeks.  The NSW DPI continues to monitor the northern regions closely. To access a time series for your Parish, visit the Combined Drought Indicator website.

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months and shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Central Tablelands, Central West, Hunter and Greater Sydney regions

The Central West, Central Tablelands, Hunter and Greater Sydney Local Land Services (LLS) regions continued   drought recovery during March and remain in  the Non-Drought CDI category (Figure 20).Given the strength of recovery over the last 12-months and recent rainfall received during March, these regions are well positioned for full production in the coming seasons.

The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 21) continues to show above average levels of plant greenness across most of the LLS regions for the January to March period. The 2019/20 bushfire impact is still evident in parts of the Central Tablelands, lower Hunter and west of Greater Sydney

The time series charts (Figure 22) show the individual response of the drought indices for Cowra, Condobolin and Singleton. Rainfall since Autumn 2020 has improved the indicators at all locations and shows that drought recovery remained strong since Winter in 2020. These regions currently remain well placed for a productive 2021.

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months. and shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.auFor an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

South East region

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI; Figure 23) indicates that the majority of the South East Local Land Services region is in the Non-Drought CDI category (Figure 6). Some southern parts of the region continue to be in the Drought Affected category in March. These areas didn’t experience relief to drought until later in 2020. The strong drought recovery across northern parts of the region that commenced in winter 2020 has continued during the first three months of 2021.

The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 24) showed higher than expected levels of plant greenness across most of the region for the January to March period. The areas impacted by the 2019/20 bushfires continued to have lower than average plant greenness levels.

The time series charts (Figure 25) show the individual response of the drought indices at Bega, Goulburn and Cooma. The charts show the gradual improvement in conditions, however the agronomic recovery at Cooma and Bega has lagged in comparison to Goulburn. Despite improvements, the areas in the south-east of the region would still benefit from further follow-up rainfall; a longer duration of Intense Drought conditions persisted in this area later during 2020. The NSW DPI continues to monitor the South East region closely.

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months and shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Official national outlook

The latest official national outlook was released by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) on 8 April 2021. Much of northern Western Australia, the Northern Territory, Queensland, and scattered parts of SA, NSW and Victoria have a low to moderate probability of exceeding median rainfall in the May to July period.

Maximum temperatures for May to July are likely to exceed the median across most of Australia. Minimum temperatures are also likely to exceed median across WA, northern and central Northern Territory, northern Cape York Peninsula, southern South Australia, southern and eastern NSW, Victoria and Tasmania. Roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler than median minimum temperatures are indicated across southern areas of the Northern Territory, northern and central South Australia, most of Queensland, and inland NSW.

NSW outlook

NSW has a near equal to moderate chance of receiving below median rainfall in the May to July period (Figure 26). The daytime temperature outlook indicates a moderate to high chance of temperatures being above median (Figure 27). There is a near equal to moderate probability of warmer than median overnight temperatures across NSW during the next three months. (Figure 28).

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Global climate drivers

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Outlook was released on 13 April 2021. The 2020–21 La Niña event has concluded, and the ENSO Outlook status is currently in the Inactive phase. Currently, models indicate ENSO will remain neutral until the end of the winter.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently the strongest climate driver influencing Australia. The MJO has moved out of the Australian region at moderate strength.

Southern Oscillation Index

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the 30 days ending 11 April was +2.0. The 90-day SOI value was +7.5. The 30-day value has remained within ENSO-neutral values over the past two weeks.

Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

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Sea surface temperatures (SST)

The monthly sea surface temperatures (SST) were normal to slightly cooler than average across parts of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean during March (Figure 30). Warm anomalies remain around the Maritime Continent and in the waters around most of Australia.

The latest values of the three NINO indices in the tropical Pacific for the week ending 11 April  were: NINO3 −0.3 °C, NINO3.4 −0.3 °C, NINO4 −0.1 °C. All three NINO indices have warmed compared to two weeks ago.

Persistent NINO3 or NINO3.4 values warmer than +0.8 °C are typical of El Niño, while persistent values cooler than −0.8 °C typically indicate La Niña.

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Sea sub-surface temperatures

The four-month sequence of equatorial Pacific sub-surface temperature anomalies (to 25 March) shows cooler than average water extending across the top 100 to 150 m of the sub-surface east of the Date Line in the equatorial Pacific. The strength and extent of cooler than average water has decreased compared to February and is typical of the break-down of La Niña.

Warm anomalies remain similar in strength compared to last month but have extended further east during March.

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Indian Ocean (IOD)

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The latest weekly value of the IOD index to 11 April was +0.12 °C. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April. When the monsoon trough shifts southwards into the southern hemisphere at this time of year, it changes the broadscale wind patterns. This means that the IOD pattern is unable to form.

Southern Ocean (Southern Annular Mode – SAM)

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently neutral and expected to remain neutral for the coming fortnight. A neutral SAM has little influence on Australian rainfall. The SAM typically has less influence on rainfall in autumn than other times of the year.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) refers to the north-south shift of rain-bearing westerly winds and weather systems in the Southern Ocean compared to the usual position. This indicator can be quite volatile and generally influences weather conditions on 1-3 week timescales. SAM forecasts are highly uncertain beyond 2-3 weeks.

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How does it work?

Map

Much of the information in the Seasonal Conditions Report is sourced from the NSW DPI Enhanced Drought Information System (EDIS) ™. The EDIS system is currently available in prototype form and is subject to an intensive ground truthing process. For more information, visit the interactive website via DroughtHub.

EDIS is an ongoing project aimed at improving the quality and timeliness of efforts to monitor conditions across the state. Key features of the system are:

  • It tracks drought by using four indicators; rainfall, soil water, plant growth, as well as tracing rainfall trends. Agronomic conditions have equal value to rainfall recorded at meteorological stations.
  • The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) brings this information together and has been designed to characterise developing drought conditions. The key purpose for building the CDI was as a drought early warning system.
  • The rainfall, soil moisture and plant growth indicators in EDIS account for conditions over a 12-month window. This provides a compromise between a highly sensitive indicator (e.g. six months) and a less sensitive indicator (e.g. 24 months).
  • Climate and remote sensing data drive the information system at a high resolution, but the CDI is reported at a Parish level.
  • Because of its configuration and purpose, there will be differences to the indicator used in the National Drought Monitoring Framework (the Australian Rainfall Deficiency Analyser) which relies on rainfall alone.
  • The CDI has three drought categories that characterise NSW according to drought intensity as well as the main drivers of a drought event (meteorological, hydrological and agronomic). DPI considers areas Drought Affected to be experiencing a drought event.
  • The Drought Affected category encompasses a wide range of conditions from the very early stages of drought entry through to a drought event becoming intense. This enables the drought monitoring system to detect a drought event early. It is also possible to stay in the Drought Affected category for some period of time.

The way in which the indicators are combined to form the CDI is described in Table 1 below.

Table 1: Description of the Combined Drought Indicator framework

CDI Phase

Technical definition

Description - typical field conditions

Intense Drought

All three indicators (rainfall, soil water, plant growth) are below the 5th percentile

Ground cover is very low, soil moisture stores are exhausted and rainfall has been minimal over the past 6-12 months.

Drought

At least one indicator is below the 5th percentile

Conditions may be very dry, or agronomic production is tight (low soil moisture or plant growth). It is possible to be in Drought when there has been some modest growth, or a few falls of rain.

Drought Affected (intensifying)

At least one indicator is below the 30th percentile and the rainfall trend is negative over the past 90 days.

Conditions are deteriorating; production is beginning to get tighter. Ground cover may be modest, but growth is moderate to low for the time of year. When indicators are close to the Drought threshold drought conditions are severe.

Drought Affected (weakening)

At least one indicator is below the 30th percentile and the rainfall trend is positive over the past 90 days.

Production conditions are getting tighter, but there have been some falls of rain over the past month. It is rare to enter the Recovering phase from the Non-Drought category; Usually there is a quick (1-2 week) transition into Drought Affected or Drought. When indicators are close to the Drought threshold drought conditions are severe.

Recovering

All indicators are below the 50th percentile but above the 30th percentile

Production is occurring but would be considered ‘below average’. Full production recovery may not have occurred if this area has experienced drought conditions over the past six months.

Non-drought

At least one indicator is above the 50th percentile.

Production is not limited by climatic conditions.

The NSW State Seasonal Update is provided each month by the NSW DPI Climate Branch.

Information used in this report was primarily sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (Columbia University), Geoscience Australia’s Digital Earth Australia Program, and NSW Department of Primary Industries.

Maps in this document contain data which is © Spatial Services – NSW Department of Finance, Services and Innovation (2021), Panorama Avenue, Bathurst 2795 and data which is © Commonwealth of Australia 2021, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne. All rights reserved.

The seasonal outlooks presented in this report are obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and other sources (including World Meteorological Organisation Global Producing Centres). These outlooks are general statements about the likelihood (chance) of (for example) exceeding the median rainfall or minimum or maximum temperatures. Such probability outlooks should not be used as categorical or definitive forecasts, but should be regarded as tools to assist in risk management and decision making. Changes in seasonal outlooks may have occurred since this report was released.

All climate and remote sensing input data is supplied to the Enhanced Drought Information System ™ under the Australian Creative Commons Licence (CCY 4.0) and is made available by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network.