NSW Overview
Prepared by NSW DPI
NSW overview
Above average June rainfall across inland NSW continued a productive winter agricultural outlook for most of the state. The rain helped alleviate dry soil surface conditions that had established in Autumn. Follow-up rain remains a focus for longer-term confidence; however much of the state is in a strong position for the remainder of winter. The NSW DPI Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) shows 94% of NSW is in the Recovery or Non-Drought categories.
Concerns of weak and variable patterns of drought recovery continued in parts of western and southern NSW, however June rainfall did bring relief in some areas. Agronomic indicators generally remain low and the continuation of follow-up rain is still needed. The NSW DPI continues to monitor conditions closely.
The 2021 winter crop outlook is strong despite dry conditions in the growth and crop emergence stage during Autumn. High June rainfall increased sub-soil moisture reserves for maturing crops later into the season. In some areas, such as parts of the northern grain region, the risk of crop waterlogging has increased. Waterlogging risk will depend on the combination of stored sub-soil moisture levels, soil type, the amount of rainfall received and the stage of crop development.
The rain improved medium-term pasture growth projections, though cool temperatures and frost continue to cause low growth rates. Growth rates are expected to remain low during winter, especially in the tablelands and areas at higher altitudes. An increase in sub-soil moisture reserves has improved the outlook for livestock production in the coming spring.
The latest Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Seasonal Outlook indicates moderate to high chances of above median rainfall across NSW for the next three months. Global climate driver models for the Indian Ocean currently indicate the possible development of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event to occur in late winter and spring. A negative IOD event is typically associated with increased chances of above median winter and spring rainfall across south-eastern Australia. Models for the Pacific Ocean remain in a neutral state and are forecast to remain neutral until spring.
The CDI and its individual rainfall, soil moisture and crop/pasture growth metrics are leading biophysical indices of drought. Factors affecting production and economic responses usually lag the CDI. Further information about the correct interpretation of the CDI at a region and industry level is provided in the regional breakdown section of this report.
Support Services
Producers and members of rural communities are encouraged to maintain contact with their local professionals who can facilitate access to appropriate support. If you or someone you know needs support, please visit droughthub.nsw.gov.au.
It is important to recognise the CDI provides an aggregated view of the State, and that on-ground conditions can be different to those displayed in the maps. They provide an ‘on average’ view of a particular region only. To report local conditions, use DPI Farm Tracker
Rainfall
The rainfall anomaly data shows the difference between total monthly rainfall and the long-term average (1961-1990; Figure 2a). Average to well-above average rainfall was received across most areas west of the Great Dividing Range in June. The highest anomalies (above 50mm) occurred across large areas of the Northern Tablelands, North West, Central West, Central Tablelands, Riverina and eastern areas of the Murray LLS regions. Coastal regions generally received below average rainfall with deficits of 0-100mm.
Most of NSW received more than 25mm of rain in June (Figure 2b). The highest totals (above 100mm) were received in parts of the Northern Tablelands, North West, Central West, Central Tablelands, Hunter, South East and eastern Riverina and Murray LLS. Parts of far western NSW were comparatively dry and some areas received less than 10mm during June.
Rainfall accumulation during the 2021 calendar year has been near or above average across most of NSW. The main exception is the far south-west of NSW where 2021 rainfall has been much lower than average at the end of June. Most of coastal NSW has received a total above 600mm for the year (Figure 2c). Central areas west of the Great Dividing Range have generally received between 300-600mm. Eastern areas of the Western LLS region have recorded 100-300mm, while the far west has received less than 100mm for the year.
Temperature
Maximum temperature anomalies were near average across NSW during June (Figure 3a). The average May maximum temperatures were generally above 12°C across NSW but were cooler in in Tableland and Alpine regions (Figure 3b).
Minimum temperatures were 0-2°C above the June average across most of NSW (Figure 3c). Mean minimum temperatures ranged between 3-9°C, except for the higher elevation areas of the Tablelands and Alpine regions that ranged between -3 to 3°C (Figure 3d).
The frost days map (Figure 3e), shows the number of days that overnight fell below 0°C across NSW in June. The frequency and area receiving frost decreased in June from May.
Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Anomaly
The seasonal Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, Figure 4) indicates that plant greenness levels are close to, or above normal across most of NSW for the April to June period. Lower than normal plant greenness remains evident across some areas of south-western NSW and in central areas of the North West LLS region. Some areas affected by the 2019/20 bushfires also remain evident in the Central Tablelands, Northern NSW and South East.
NSW Farm Dam Survey
There are large areas of southern and western NSW where farm dam levels are less than 20% of capacity (Figure 5). Further east and in areas of north-western NSW, dam levels are generally greater than 40% of capacity with large areas in central and central northern areas with dam capacities greater than 80%.
Individual drought indicators
Soil Water Index
The Soil Water Index (SWI, Figure 6) indicates the majority of NSW is currently at average to above average levels. Southern and south-western areas of NSW continue to remain in the below average category at the end of June. More rainfall is needed to increase the SWI in these areas and NSW DPI continues to monitor conditions closely.
Plant Growth Index
The Plant Growth Index (PGI, Figure 7) indicates that the majority of NSW is currently at average to above average levels at the end of June. Large areas of southern and south-western NSW remain in the below average category.
Rainfall Index
The Rainfall Index (RI, Figure 8) indicates that the majority of NSW is currently in the Average to Extremely High category. However, there is a large degree of variability across NSW. Parts of Murray LLS and the far south-west of NSW that are in the below average category at the end of June.
Drought Direction Index
The Drought Direction Index (DDI, Figure 9) tracks the 150-day trend of daily rainfall totals. The DDI indicates that the south-west of NSW currently has a wetting trend. Most of the rainfall contributing to this trend occurred recently in June. Elsewhere and despite June rainfall, large areas of NSW show a strong drying trend. This likely reflects the extent of rain deficits that occurred during late autumn.
Changes in the individual drought indicators may have occurred since this update was released. For the most current information, please visit droughthub.nsw.gov.au.
Monthly regional breakdown
CDI status for the regions
Figure 10 displays the CDI status for each individual Local Land Services region to 30 June 2021. The following regional descriptions are based on data available until the end of June 2021.
Murray and Riverina regions
The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI; Figure 11) shows a large area in the west of the Riverina and Murray Local Land Services (LLS) is in the Drought Affected category at the end of June. Isolated rainfall in June has improved conditions in some of these districts. Further rainfall during the cooler months will aid in improving the agronomic indicators across the region during the lead up to spring.
Conditions improved further east where heavier and more consistent Autumn and early Winter rainfall has fallen Generally, the rainfall has improved the 2021 winter crop conditions and the outlook for pasture growth. The DPI continues to monitor conditions closely.
The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 12) shows that most of the region was experiencing near to or higher than normal plant greenness levels for the April to June period. Plant greenness levels are lower than expected in south-western areas of the Murray and Riverina LLS regions. The impact of the 2019/2020 bush fires is still evident south of Tumut.
The time series charts (Figure 13) show the individual response of the drought indices for Hay, Finley, Temora and Moulamein. The charts show declining seasonal conditions since March 2021, although the rainfall in June has initiated improvements. Follow-up rainfall remains a focus to build these indicators prior to spring. At Moulamein and further west, poor conditions are likely to be more pronounced due to lower rainfall and weaker drought recovery than the other locations during 2020/21.
The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months and shows how the indices are tracking compared to long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.
Western region
Conditions remained variable across the Western Local Land Service (LLS) region in June. Large areas continued the recovery from drought, and rainfall during the month extended confidence for the continuation of productive conditions in 2021. The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI; Figure 14) shows that the majority of the region is in the Non-Drought category. Parts of the south-western Western Local Land Services remain in the Drought Affected category. Drought recovery has continued to remain variable, weak or delayed across these districts and further west. Rainfall initiated relief during the month; however the agronomic indicators are still low in some districts. Follow-up rainfall during the cooler months is needed to increase confidence in the lead up to spring.
The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 15) shows most of the region is experiencing near to or higher than normal plant greenness levels for the April to June period. Plant greenness levels are lower than expected in parts of the far west and south-west.
The time series charts (Figure 16) show the individual response of the drought indices for Bourke, Ivanhoe and Wentworth. Conditions generally improved at all locations during 2020, however declined during the first four months of 2021. June rainfall has initiated some improvement in the indicators, though follow-up rain will be important to maintain these improvements. The DPI continues to monitor conditions closely, especially further west and in the south-west. To access a time series for your Parish, visit the Combined Drought Indicator website.
The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months. This is then ranked against all other 12-month periods. This shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.
North West, Northern Tablelands and North Coast regions
Rainfall in June has improved conditions and supported drought recovery across the North West, Northern Tablelands Local Land Service regions. The North Coast LLS region was comparatively dry in June, however, productive conditions have generally been maintained after the large rain totals received in March. The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI; Figure 17) shows most of these regions are now in the Recovery or Non-drought categories. June rainfall has replenished soil water levels to field capacity in some areas, especially in regions where overland flooding occurred in March. This has increased the risk of waterlogging in some areas.
The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 18) indicated near to above-normal greenness across most of the region for the April to June period. The plant greenness anomaly remains below normal levels in parts of central and northern areas of the Northwest LLS region.
The time series charts (Figure 19) show the individual response of the drought indices for Moree, Walgett, Tenterfield and Lismore. The soil water and plant growth indices plateaued or declined at all locations in recent months, however the rainfall in June has initiated some improvements. Lismore is an exception and reflects the current trends across much of the North Coast where conditions were comparatively dry in June. The NSW DPI continues to monitor the northern regions closely. To access a time series for your Parish, visit the Combined Drought Indicator website.
The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months and shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.
Central Tablelands, Central West, Hunter and Greater Sydney regions
The Central West, Central Tablelands, Hunter and Greater Sydney Local Land Services (LLS) regions continued drought recovery during June and are in a strong position for remainder of the 2021 Winter. The entire region is in the Non-Drought CDI category at the end of June (Figure 20) with recent rainfall improving the agronomic indicators.
The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 21) continues to show above average levels of plant greenness across most of the LLS regions for the April to June period. The 2019/20 bushfire impact is still evident in parts of the Central Tablelands, lower Hunter and west of Greater Sydney.
The time series charts (Figure 22) show the individual response of the drought indices for Cowra, Condobolin and Singleton. Rainfall since Autumn 2020 improved the indicators at all locations and shows evidence of a strong drought recovery. These regions currently remain well placed for productive conditions in 2021 with the recent plateau or decline in the agronomic indices improving due to the rainfall in June
The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months. and shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.
South East region
The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI; Figure 23) shows that the South East Local Land Services region is in the Non-Drought CDI category. June rainfall continued to build longer-term confidence of productive conditions and supported some southern parts of the region where the transition to the Non-drought category was more recent. Much of the South East LLS region remains well positioned for a productive 2021.
The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 24) showed near normal to higher than expected levels of plant greenness across most of the region for the April to June period. The areas impacted by the 2019/20 bushfires continue to have lower than average plant greenness levels.
The time series charts (Figure 25) show the individual response of the drought indices at Bega, Goulburn and Cooma. The charts show more recent improvements in the indices at Bega and Cooma where higher rainfall was recorded in May and June. The indices at Goulburn reflect a dry period in April and May, however rainfall in June has improved the indicators.
The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months and shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.
Seasonal climate outlook
Official national outlook
The official national outlook was released by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) on 8 July 2021. Rainfall is likely to be above average for most of Australia during the August to October period. Western areas of Western Australia, coastal south-eastern Australian and southern Tasmania have a near equal chances of above or below median rainfall for the next three months.
Maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for the northern tropics, far south-eastern Australia and southern areas of the west coast in Western Australia. Below median daytime temperatures are more likely for southern Queensland and north-east NSW. Above median minimum temperatures are likely across Australia during August to October.
The Bureau issues a new 3-month seasonal update weekly, each Thursday afternoon.
NSW outlook
Most of NSW has moderate to high chances of receiving above median rainfall in the August to October period (Figure 26). The daytime temperature outlook indicates a near equal to high chance of cooler than median temperatures across most of NSW (Figure 27). Far south-eastern NSW has moderate to high chances of warmer than median daytime temperatures. There is a high probability of warmer than median overnight temperatures across the state (Figure 28).
Global climate drivers
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Outlook was released on 6 July 2021. The ENSO Outlook status remains in the Inactive phase with most oceanic and atmospheric indicators within neutral ranges. Models indicate that ENSO is likely to remain in a neutral state for the remaining southern hemisphere winter.
Southern Oscillation Index
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the 30 days ending 4 July was +5.1. The 90-day SOI value was +2.8. Both are within ENSO-neutral thresholds.
Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
Sea surface temperatures (SST)
The monthly sea surface temperatures (SST) were close to average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. SSTs over the eastern Pacific Ocean near the coast of Ecuador warmed slightly from May.
The latest values of the three NINO indices in the tropical Pacific for the week ending 4 July were: NINO3 0.3 °C, NINO3.4 0.3 °C, NINO4 0.2°C. All three NINO indices are within the ENSO-neutral range.
Persistent NINO3 or NINO3.4 values warmer than +0.8 °C are typical of El Niño, while persistent values cooler than −0.8 °C typically indicate La Niña.
Sea sub-surface temperatures
The four-month sequence of equatorial Pacific sub-surface temperature anomalies (to June) shows a pattern consistent with a neutral ENSO state. Weak warm anomalies were present across much of the sub-surface column west of the Date Line, and also in the top 100 metres of the column east of 140°W. These warm anomalies have decreased in strength over the last four months. The cool sub-surface anomalies that were present in the central and eastern parts of basin have also decreased over the past four months.
Indian Ocean (IOD)
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index values remained negative throughout June. The latest weekly value of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index to 4 July was −0.27 °C. This is above the negative IOD threshold of -0.4 °C, however follows on from the previous six consecutive weeks when IOD values were below this threshold. While a negative IOD event is not declared until the index has been below the threshold for at least 8 weeks, this pattern can still influence Australian rainfall.
Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the IOD to return below the negative IOD threshold and that a negative IOD event is likely for the second half of the southern hemisphere winter and into spring.
A negative IOD event increases the chances of above average winter and spring rainfall for parts of southern Australia.
Southern Ocean (Southern Annular Mode – SAM)
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is strongly positive at present. SAM is expected to weaken to neutral levels over the coming week, and then remain close to neutral over the next two weeks. At this time of year positive SAM typically results in cold fronts and storm tracks shifting further south than their usual winter path. This can increase rainfall over parts of eastern Australia, but reduce rainfall for much of south-east South Australia, western and central Victoria, Tasmania, and the west coast of Western Australia.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) refers to the north-south shift of rain-bearing westerly winds and weather systems in the Southern Ocean compared to the usual position. This indicator can be quite volatile and generally influences weather conditions on 1-3 week timescales. SAM forecasts are highly uncertain beyond 2-3 weeks.
Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) explained
How does it work?
Much of the information in the Seasonal Conditions Report is sourced from the NSW DPI Enhanced Drought Information System (EDIS) ™. The EDIS system is currently available in prototype form and is subject to an intensive ground truthing process. For more information, visit the interactive website via droughthub.nsw.gov.au.
EDIS is an ongoing project aimed at improving the quality and timeliness of efforts to monitor conditions across the state. Key features of the system are:
- It tracks drought by using four indicators; rainfall, soil water, plant growth, as well as tracing rainfall trends. Agronomic conditions have equal value to rainfall recorded at meteorological stations.
- The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) brings this information together and has been designed to characterise developing drought conditions. The key purpose for building the CDI was as a drought early warning system.
- The rainfall, soil moisture and plant growth indicators in EDIS account for conditions over a 12-month window. This provides a compromise between a highly sensitive indicator (e.g. six months) and a less sensitive indicator (e.g. 24 months).
- Climate and remote sensing data drive the information system at a high resolution, but the CDI is reported at a Parish level.
- Because of its configuration and purpose, there will be differences to the indicator used in the National Drought Monitoring Framework (the Australian Rainfall Deficiency Analyser) which relies on rainfall alone.
- The CDI has three drought categories that characterise NSW according to drought intensity as well as the main drivers of a drought event (meteorological, hydrological and agronomic). DPI considers areas Drought Affected to be experiencing a drought event.
- The Drought Affected category encompasses a wide range of conditions from the very early stages of drought entry through to a drought event becoming intense. This enables the drought monitoring system to detect a drought event early. It is also possible to stay in the Drought Affected category for some period of time.
The way in which the indicators are combined to form the CDI is described in Table 1 below.
CDI Phase | Technical definition | Description - typical field conditions |
Intense Drought | All three indicators (rainfall, soil water, plant growth) are below the 5th percentile | Ground cover is very low, soil moisture stores are exhausted and rainfall has been minimal over the past 6-12 months. |
Drought | At least one indicator is below the 5th percentile | Conditions may be very dry, or agronomic production is tight (low soil moisture or plant growth). It is possible to be in Drought when there has been some modest growth, or a few falls of rain. |
Drought Affected (intensifying) | At least one indicator is below the 30th percentile and the rainfall trend is negative over the past 90 days. | Conditions are deteriorating; production is beginning to get tighter. Ground cover may be modest, but growth is moderate to low for the time of year. When indicators are close to the Drought threshold drought conditions are severe. |
Drought Affected (weakening) | At least one indicator is below the 30th percentile and the rainfall trend is positive over the past 90 days. | Production conditions are getting tighter, but there have been some falls of rain over the past month. It is rare to enter the Recovering phase from the Non-Drought category; Usually there is a quick (1-2 week) transition into Drought Affected or Drought. When indicators are close to the Drought threshold drought conditions are severe. |
Recovering | All indicators are below the 50th percentile but above the 30th percentile | Production is occurring but would be considered ‘below average’. Full production recovery may not have occurred if this area has experienced drought conditions over the past six months. |
Non-drought | At least one indicator is above the 50th percentile. | Production is not limited by climatic conditions. |
Acknowledgments
The NSW State Seasonal Update is provided each month by the NSW DPI Climate Branch.
Information used in this report was primarily sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (Columbia University), Geoscience Australia’s Digital Earth Australia Program, and NSW Department of Primary Industries.
Maps in this document contain data which is © Spatial Services – NSW Department of Finance, Services and Innovation (2021), Panorama Avenue, Bathurst 2795 and data which is © Commonwealth of Australia 2021, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne. All rights reserved.
The seasonal outlooks presented in this report are obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and other sources (including World Meteorological Organisation Global Producing Centres). These outlooks are general statements about the likelihood (chance) of (for example) exceeding the median rainfall or minimum or maximum temperatures. Such probability outlooks should not be used as categorical or definitive forecasts, but should be regarded as tools to assist in risk management and decision making. Changes in seasonal outlooks may have occurred since this report was released.
All climate and remote sensing input data is supplied to the Enhanced Drought Information System ™ under the Australian Creative Commons Licence (CCY 4.0) and is made available by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network.
© State of New South Wales through the Department of Regional NSW, 2021. You may copy, distribute and otherwise freely deal with this publication for any purpose, provided that you attribute the NSW Department of Primary Industries as the owner.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this publication is based on knowledge and understanding at the time of writing (June 2021). However, because of advances in knowledge, users are reminded of the need to ensure that information upon which they rely is up to date and to check currency of the information with the appropriate officer of the Department of Primary Industries or the user’s independent adviser.
Published by the NSW Department of Primary Industries. ISSN 2202-1795 (Online). Volume 9 Issue 6.