State Seasonal Update About the program The Combined Drought Indicator

The Combined Drought Indicator explained

The Combined Drought Indicator is one source of information that informs policy and Government responses to changing seasonal conditions, including drought. The map provides a snapshot of conditions at a point in time and is not used to determine eligibility for drought assistance measures offered by the NSW Government.

Much of the information in the Seasonal Conditions Report is sourced from the NSW DPI Enhanced Drought Information System (EDIS)™. EDIS is currently available in prototype form and is subject to an intensive ground truthing process. For more information, visit the interactive website via droughthub.nsw.gov.au.

EDIS is an ongoing project aimed at improving the quality and timeliness of efforts to monitor conditions across the state. Key features of the system are:

  • It tracks drought by using four indicators: rainfall, soil water, plant growth, as well as rainfall trends. Agronomic conditions have equal value to rainfall recorded at meteorological stations.
  • The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) brings this information together and has been designed to characterise developing drought conditions. The key purpose for building the CDI was as a drought early warning system.
  • The rainfall, soil moisture and plant growth indicators in EDIS account for conditions over a 12-month window. This provides a compromise between a highly sensitive indicator (e.g. six months) and a less sensitive indicator (e.g. 24 months).
  • Climate and remote sensing data drive the information system at a high resolution, but the CDI is reported at a Parish level.
  • Because of its configuration and purpose, there will be differences to the indicator used in the National Drought Monitoring Framework (the Australian Rainfall Deficiency Analyser) which relies on rainfall alone.
  • The CDI has three drought categories that characterise NSW according to drought intensity as well as the main drivers of a drought event (meteorological, hydrological and agronomic). DPI considers areas Drought Affected to be experiencing a drought event.
  • The Drought Affected category encompasses a wide range of conditions from the very early stages of drought entry through to a drought event becoming intense. This enables the drought monitoring system to detect a drought event early. It is also possible to stay in the Drought Affected category for some period of time.

The way in which the indicators are combined to form the CDI is described in Table 1 below.

Description of the Combined Drought Indicator framework

CDI PhaseTechnical definitionDescription - typical field conditions
Non-droughtAll indicators greater than the 50th percentile or all indicators are greater than the 30th percentile AND the previous category is Non-droughtProduction is not limited by climatic conditions.
RecoveringAll indicators are greater than the 30th percentile AND any indicator is less than the 50th percentile AND the previous category is Drought Affected.Production is occurring but would be considered ‘below average’. Full production recovery may not have occurred if this area has experienced drought conditions over the past six months.
Drought Affected (weakening)Any indicator is less than the 30th percentile AND Positive 5-month Rainfall Index trend (DDI>0.4).Production conditions are getting tighter, but there have been some falls of rain over the past month. It is rare to enter the Recovering phase from the Non-Drought category; Usually there is a quick (1-2 week) transition into Drought Affected or Drought. When indicators are close to the Drought threshold drought conditions are severe.
Drought Affected (intensifying)Any indicator is less than the 30th percentile AND Negative 5-month Rainfall Index trend (DDI≤0.4).Conditions are deteriorating; production is beginning to get tighter. Ground cover may be modest, but growth is moderate to low for the time of year. When indicators are close to the Drought threshold drought conditions are severe.
DroughtAny indicator is less than the 5th percentileConditions may be very dry, or agronomic production is tight (low soil moisture or plant growth). It is possible to be in Drought when there has been some modest growth, or a few falls of rain.
Intense DroughtAll three indicators (rainfall, soil water, plant growth) are below the 5th percentileGround cover is very low, soil moisture stores are exhausted, and rainfall has been minimal over the past 6-12 months.