NSW outlook July to September 2025

(issued from the Bureau of Meteorology on 5 June 2025)

Rainfall Outlook

Rainfall is likely to be above median across most of NSW during the July to September forecast period.

• The rainfall outlook shows the likelihood of receiving above or below median rainfall during the forecast period.
• There is a 45% to 75% chance of rainfall exceeding the historical median across most of NSW for the reporting period, depending on location.
• For most of the South East, Riverina and Murray LLS regions the chance of rainfall exceeding the historical median is 40% to 55%.
• Outlooks based on the Bureau of Meteorology numerical model have a moderate to high (65% to above 75%) accuracy for the forecast period when compared to the historical record (1981 – 2018).

This outlook can shift rapidly as the Bureau of Meteorology updates the observed inputs to its numerical forecasting systems.

You can explore the Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks on their website.

Temperature Outlook

High likelihood of above median daytime and overnight temperatures for most of NSW.

• The temperature outlooks show the likelihood of above or below median temperatures during the forecast period.
• There is a high likelihood (55% to above 80% chance) of above median maximum temperatures across NSW during the winter period.
• There is a high likelihood (75% to above 80% chance) of above median minimum temperatures across NSW during the winter period.
• Outlooks based on the Bureau of Meteorology numerical model have moderate to high (50% to 75%) accuracy for the forecast period when compared to the historical record (1981 – 2018).

You can explore the Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks on their website.