NSW summary

Overview

Contrasting seasonal conditions across NSW, with generally wet conditions in the north and dry conditions in the south.

• Extremely high rainfall impacted eastern NSW in mid-late May, particularly on the NSW Central Coast and parts of the Hunter. This event caused severe flooding in these regions.
• Official rainfall observations were average to above average for large parts of eastern NSW.
• Below average rainfall was observed across large parts of western NSW.
• Falls between 10-60mm were observed in the drought affected regions in the Riverina and Murray, with some higher isolated totals reported.
• At the end of May 2025, 77% of the state is in the Non-Drought or Recovery categories of the long-term drought indicator (NSW Combined Drought Indicator).

The production outlook remains positive for much of northern inland NSW.

• Recent rainfall had provided further confidence for many inland locations across the tablelands and northwest.
• Some parts of the region, notably the mid north and north coast, have experienced flooding and widespread waterlogging restricting production in these areas and severely impacting many agricultural industries.

Challenging conditions continue in the south and parts of central NSW despite rainfall in late May.

• The area categorised as Drought Affected, based on the NSW-CDI, has further expanded into parts of central NSW over the past month. This is part of a broader drought event that has been impacting South Australia and Victoria since last winter.
• May rainfall was timely and welcome across many drought-affected areas in the Murray and Riverina which has provided both cropping and mixed farming operations with a more optimistic outlook entering winter.
• Cropping enterprises in some regions have been able to utilise timely May rainfall, with additional sowing opportunities and improved soil moisture aiding initial germination and crop establishment.
• While the rainfall was welcome for drought affected southern livestock systems, it will not change the need for drought management through winter, with livestock producers having taken decisions around destocking, stock confinement and supplementary drought feeding.

Producers are carefully managing variable conditions in both livestock and cropping enterprises. More detail is available for each LLS region in the regional breakdown section of this Update.

Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal climate outlook issued by the Bureau of Meteorology is for a above median rainfall and warm temperatures as the most likely outcome for much of NSW in the July to September forecast period.  

• There is a 45% to 75% chance of rainfall exceeding the historical median across most of NSW for the reporting period, depending on location.
• For most of the South East, Murray and parts of the Riverina LLS regions, the chance of rainfall exceeding the historical median is 40% to 55%.
• The temperature outlook indicates that there is a high likelihood (75% to above 80% chance) of above median minimum temperatures for NSW for the reporting period. The chance of exceeding median maximum temperatures for NSW is between 55% to above 80% depending on location.
• The current ENSO value is -0.17°C (as of 01 June 2015) and the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index is currently +3.1 (as of 02 June 2025). The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently +0.28°C (as of 25 May 2025).

DPIRD Drought Forecast

The most likely outcome is for drought conditions to expand across parts of NSW.

• Despite recent rainfall and a more optimistic rainfall outlook for parts of NSW, drought conditions are likely to continue in the south of the state in areas with longer-term rainfall deficits. Drought conditions are also likely to expand further into western and central NSW.
• The continued drought conditions are due to the likelihood that above median rainfall will not be enough to improve the underlying drought indicators to the thresholds needed to transition into the NSW-CDI Recovery category.
• The intensity of drought conditions is likely to ease in the South East, and for parts of eastern Riverina and Murray LLS regions.
• Forecast ensemble agreement and historical accuracy vary by region. In this forecast period regions of moderate to low agreement correspond to those that are forecast to have intensifying drought conditions.
• Past skill for this forecast period is low to moderate for most of NSW.