NSW summary

Overview

Continued rainfall steadily improves drought conditions in parts of NSW

• The NSW DPI Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) shows that 43% of NSW is in one of the three drought categories at the end of April 2024.
• There was highly variable rainfall through April for much of NSW, with the highest totals received in the northeast and Greater Sydney region of the state.
• Although there are signs of recovery for some regions, further rainfall is critical in aiding a longer-term drought recovery. Some underlying dryness remains, with low soil moisture levels despite high rainfall and pasture/crop response.
• The impact of the rain events in the first week of April were variable across the state, with rainfall totals ranging from 10 – 300mm. Highest totals were along the coast, Hunter, and Greater Sydney regions
• Many areas are still managing the impacts of this long-term drought event. This is continuing to provide challenges for producers implementing drought management and recovery strategies for their farm enterprises.
• At the time of writing this update (6 May) NSW is receiving widespread follow up rainfall along the coast and parts of inland NSW. The implications of this event will be known in the coming weeks and reported in the next edition.

Regional overview

NSW DPI is closely monitoring several regions where the underlying drought indicators have continued to decline.

• This includes parts of the Central Tablelands where soil moisture levels have continued to decline.
• Drought affected areas have expanded in the Riverina and Murray LLS Regions. This is driven by ongoing moderate to low levels of stored soil moisture and continued medium-term rainfall deficits across these regions.
• Conditions have eased across much of the Hunter with a reduction in the Drought and Intense Drought categories throughout April.
• Areas remain dry along the south coast with the Bega region in the Drought category.
• NSW DPI will continue to monitor these regions closely.
• The decision-making environment continues to be challenging for many NSW farmers. Available remote sensing information of pasture conditions highlights that there is considerable variability within and between regions. Farm water supply is also variable across many regions due to hot conditions and variable rainfall throughout April.

Seasonal climate outlook

The seasonal climate outlook is for a high chance of very warm conditions across NSW and a decreased chance of above median rainfall for much of NSW in the May to July period.

• The seasonal rainfall outlook indicates that there is 30% to 55% chance of above median rainfall for most of NSW for the May to July period.
• Temperatures are expected to be well above median across NSW for the outlook period.
• The ENSO Outlook status is neutral, and the Southern Oscillation Index is negative.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) value is neutral.
• Other climate drivers like the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and local systems continue to bring the prospect of instability in week-to-week weather during this forecast period.