El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

(Issued 30 April 2024)

• The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status is currently at neutral.
• Oceanic and atmospheric indicators are also neutral.
• Climate models indicate that the ENSO is likely remain neutral through to July 2024.
• El Niño and La Niña predictions made in mid-autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. Current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond July should be used with caution.

Model agreement

• The figure shows forecasts from international models for sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region for 9 overlapping 3-month periods (sourced from the Columbia International Research Institute on 1 May 2024).
• All models are forecasting a continued cooling trend in this part of the tropical pacific, consistent with the breakdown of the 2023 El Niño event.
• There is wide variation in the model forecasts, particularly across the longer timeframes.  A cluster of these models suggests that the cooling trend could continue over the coming 4-5 months meeting thresholds (0.5°C) that the American meteorological agencies use to indicate a La Niña state.
• DPI’s advice is that forecasts of La Niña forming are premature at this stage. It is important to monitor conditions closely over the coming month using the wider variety of indicators and thresholds used by the Australian BoM to track ENSO and its impacts on seasonal climate in Australia.