NSW State Seasonal Update - January 2022

Prepared by NSW DPI

NSW overview

New South Wales continues to experience strong production conditions supported by average to above average rainfall across most of the state over the past few months. Most of NSW is currently in non-drought with the NSW DPI Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) showing 96% of NSW in the Recovery or Non-Drought categories at the end of January.

Pasture availability remains high across the state although in many districts the nutritional value of pasture for livestock has declined over recent months. The seasonal conditions also create challenges for livestock producers, such as weed management. There have been opportunities in many parts of the state to conserve fodder for future droughts.

The irrigated crop forecast for the 2021-22 season remains high due to high soil moisture levels and water availability in the state’s major irrigation storages.

Despite strong seasonal conditions overall, parts of Western NSW and western areas of the Riverina and Murray regions continue to experience a slow, variable or delayed drought recovery. The agronomic indictors have recently improved in some regions, though consistent follow-up rain is needed to improve conditions and provided opportunities for longer-term drought recovery.

The latest Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Seasonal Outlook indicates moderate to high chances of above median rainfall across NSW for the three months between February and April. The ENSO Outlook status is currently at La Niña. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral and models indicate that the IOD will remain neutral in the coming months. Sea surface temperatures in the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific Ocean remain cooler than average. Warmer than average sea surface temperatures persist across the western Pacific.

The CDI and its individual rainfall, soil moisture and crop/pasture growth metrics are leading biophysical indices of drought. Factors affecting production and economic responses usually lag the CDI. Further information about the correct interpretation of the CDI at a region and industry level is provided in the regional breakdown section of this report.

It is important to recognise the CDI provides an aggregated view of the State, and that on-ground conditions can be different to those displayed in the maps. They provide an ‘on average’ view of a particular region only.

Rainfall

The rainfall anomaly data shows the difference between total monthly rainfall and the long-term average monthly rainfall (1961-1990; Figure 2a). Most of NSW has received average to above average rainfall in January. The highest rainfall anomalies were in parts of the Riverina, Murray and South East Local Land Services (LLS) regions. The Hunter, and parts of the North Coast, Northern Tablelands, North West and Western LLS regions have received below average rainfall. The higher rainfall totals have been in the South East and Murray where falls above 200mm have been recorded (Figure 2b). Parts of the North Coast have received more than 300mm of rainfall. Areas of Western NSW have received less than 50mm of rainfall.

Temperature

Eastern NSW experienced average to below average maximum temperatures for January, whilst western NSW experienced mostly above average maximum temperatures (Figure 3a). Warmer than average anomalies (2-3°C) were recorded in parts of western NSW and cooler than average anomalies were recorded in parts of central and south-eastern NSW. The average January maximum temperatures ranged between 24°C to 33°C in eastern NSW. Areas west of the Great Dividing Range had maximum temperatures above 30°C, and above 36°C for areas in western NSW (Figure 3b).

Minimum temperatures were above to well above average across all of NSW in January (Figure 3c). The average January minimum temperatures were above 12°C in eastern NSW and above 18°C in the west (Figure 3d). Southern alpine regions experienced cooler temperatures generally between 9 to 12°C.

Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Anomaly

The seasonal Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, Figure 4) indicates that plant greenness levels are close to, or above normal across most of NSW for the November to January period. Slightly lower than normal plant greenness remains evident across parts of the Western LLS region.

NSW Farm Dam Survey

The NSW Farm Dam Survey indicates dam levels are generally greater than 40% of capacity across eastern areas of NSW and above 80% capacity in regions that have received higher rainfall totals (Figure 5). Areas of western, southern and some coastal regions of NSW have farm dam levels less than 20% of capacity.

Soil Water Index

The Soil Water Index (SWI, Figure 6) indicates the majority of NSW is currently in the average to above average categories. This is a result of the rainfall that has been received over the last few months. Parts of western and south-western NSW are in the below average category and a small region in the far south-west is in the extremely low category.

Plant Growth Index

The Plant Growth Index (PGI, Figure 7) indicates that the majority of NSW is in the average to above average categories at the end of January. Parts of south-western and western NSW reflect a similar pattern with the SWI and are in the below average category.

Rainfall Index

The Rainfall Index (RI, Figure 8) indicates that the majority of NSW is currently in the above average or extremely high categories. This reflects the distribution of average or above average rainfall accumulated over the last 12 months. There is a small area in south-western NSW which is currently in the below average RI category.

Drought Direction Index

The Drought Direction Index (DDI, Figure 9) tracks the 150-day trend of daily rainfall totals. The DDI indicates most of NSW is in a weak to strong wetting trend. However, these areas have started to become patchy as weak drying trends are emerging throughout Western NSW, and strong drying trends are evident in the eastern areas of the Hunter and Riverina. The weak drying trends in the south west may be due to warmer minimum and maximum temperatures. The stronger drying trend in the Hunter is likely due to below average rainfall over the past few months. The stronger drying trend in the eastern Riverina is a result of extremely high rainfall recorded in the district in spring (2021). Recent conditions have been drier relative to this very wet spring period, creating the strong drying (negative) trend. This does not indicate the emergence of a drought in the region.

Changes in the individual drought indicators may have occurred since this update was released. For the most current information, please visit DroughtHub.

CDI status for the regions

Figure 10 displays the CDI status for each individual Local Land Services (LLS) region to 31 January 2022. The following regional descriptions are based on data available until the end of January 2022.

Murray and Riverina regions

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI, Figure 11) shows that conditions in the Riverina and Murray Local Land Services (LLS) regions have improved since the December Update. All of the Riverina and most of the Murray are now in the Non-Drought or Recovery categories. Despite recent improvements across both regions, further rain is needed to support long term drought recovery.

The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 12) shows that most of the Murray and Riverina regions were experiencing near to or higher than normal plant greenness levels for the November to January period. Plant greenness levels remain lower than expected in some western areas of the Murray and Riverina LLS regions. The impact of the 2019/2020 bush fires is still evident south of Tumut.

The time series charts (Figure 13) show the individual response of the drought indices for Hay, Finley, Temora and Moulamein. Temora and Finley remain steady with average to high soil water, plant growth and rainfall indices. Continued rainfall has allowed Hay to remain in the Non-Drought category, but further rainfall is needed to maintain conditions. Further rainfall is required at Moulamein to improve the drought indices. To access a time series for your Parish, visit the Combined Drought Indicator website.

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months and show how the indices are tracking compared to long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.

Western region

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI, Figure 14) shows that whilst drought conditions remain variable across the region, conditions have improved since the December Update. The Drought Affected areas in the north west and south have now transitioned into the Non-Drought or Recovery categories. The area in the Drought Affected category between Broken Hill and Menindee expanded during January. The DPI continues to closely monitor conditions in Western LLS.

The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 15) shows variability across the Western LLS region. Much of the region is experiencing near normal or higher levels of plant greenness for the November to January period. Areas in the far west and south-west continue to have lower than normal plant greenness levels, along with parts of central Western LLS near Bourke and Cobar.

The time series charts (Figure 16) show the individual response of the drought indices for Bourke, Ivanhoe and Wentworth. Ivanhoe remains in the Non-Drought category with high soil water, plant growth and rainfall indices. Continued rainfall is required at Bourke and Broken Hill to maintain the Non-Drought status and improve the soil water and plant growth indices. Wentworth is currently in the Drought Affected category and rainfall is required to improve conditions. NSW continues to monitor the Western LLS region closely. To access a time series for your Parish, visit the Combined Drought Indicator website.

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months. This shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.

North West, Northern Tablelands and North Coast regions

The North West, Northern Tablelands and North Coast Local Land Service regions continue longer-term drought recovery. Productive conditions have generally been maintained due to rainfall received over the past year. The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI, Figure 17) shows that the LLS regions are in the Non-Drought category.

The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 18) indicated near to above-normal greenness across most of the regions for the November to January period.

The time series charts (Figure 19) show the individual response of the drought indices for Moree, Walgett, Tenterfield and Lismore. The indicators remain high at all locations. To access a time series for your Parish, visit the Combined Drought Indicator website.

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months and shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.

Central Tablelands, Central West, Hunter and Greater Sydney regions

The Central West, Central Tablelands, Hunter and Greater Sydney Local Land Services (LLS) regions continue to experience non-drought conditions. Productive conditions have generally been maintained due to rainfall received over the past year. The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI; Figure 20) shows that the LLS regions are in the Non-Drought category at the end of January.

The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 21) shows near normal to high levels of plant greenness across most of the LLS regions for the November to January period. The 2019/20 bushfire impact is still evident in parts of the Central Tablelands, lower Hunter and west of Greater Sydney.

The time series charts (Figure 22) show the individual response of the drought indices for Cowra, Condobolin and Singleton. Follow-up rainfall has supported the CDI indicators at all locations and there is evidence of a strong drought recovery. These regions currently remain well placed for productive conditions in the coming months. To access a time series for your Parish, visit the Combined Drought Indicator website.

The CDI is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months and show how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.

South East region

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI, Figure 23) shows that the South East Local Land Services region is now in the Non-Drought CDI category. Productive conditions have generally been maintained due to rainfall received over the past year. The area west of Nowra that was previously in the Recovery category has transitioned into the Non-Drought category during January. Further rain will help support longer-term drought recovery this region.

The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 24) showed near normal to high levels of plant greenness across most of the region for the November to January period. Some areas impacted by the 2019/20 bushfires continue to have lower than average plant greenness levels.

The time series charts (Figure 25) show the individual response of the drought indices at Bega, Goulburn and Cooma. The three regions remain in the Non-Drought category with high soil water, plant growth and rainfall indices. These regions currently remain well placed for productive conditions in the coming months. To access a time series for your Parish, visit the Combined Drought Indicator website.

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months and shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.

Official national outlook

The official national outlook was released by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) on 3 February 2022. Rainfall during February to April is likely to be above median for eastern and central Australia. Parts of central Northern Territory, coastal South Australia and western Tasmania are likely to have below median rainfall. Elsewhere there is near equal chance of above or below median rainfall.

Maximum temperatures are likely to be warmer than median for western, southern, and northern Australia. Southern parts of the eastern Australia are likely to be cooler than median. Minimum temperatures for February to April are likely to be above median across Australia.

The Bureau issues a new 3-month seasonal update weekly, each Thursday afternoon.

NSW outlook

Most of NSW has a 50% to 80% chance of receiving above median rainfall between February and April (Figure 26).

The maximum temperature outlook (Figure 27) indicates a less than 20% to above 40% chance of warmer than median temperatures across most of eastern NSW. There is a 50% to above 65% chance of above median maximum temperatures across western NSW and the far north-east of the state.

There is a 55% to above 80% chance of warmer than median overnight temperatures across the state (Figure 28).

Global climate drivers

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Outlook was released on 01 February 2022. The La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific Ocean though is likely that it is at or near its peak. Climate models suggest that neutral ENSO conditions will return in early autumn 2022. La Niña typically increases the chance of above median rainfall in NSW during spring and summer.

Southern Oscillation Index

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the 30 days ending 30 January was +3.2 (Figure 29). The 90-day SOI value was +9.6. Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña.

Sea surface temperatures (SST)

Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific remain cooler than average. Weaker warmer than average SSTs persist for parts of the Maritime Continent and some areas around northern Australia (Figure 30).

The latest values of the three NINO indices in the tropical Pacific for the week ending 30 January were: NINO3 -1.0°C, NINO3.4 -0.6°C, NINO4 -0.1°C.

Persistent NINO3 or NINO3.4 values warmer than +0.8 °C are typical of El Niño, while persistent values cooler than −0.8 °C typically indicate La Niña.

Sea sub-surface temperatures

The four-month sequence of equatorial Pacific sub-surface temperature anomalies (to 27 January 2022) shows cool anomalies in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. (Figure 31). Sub-surface anomalies were 3-4ºC cooler than average in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Warm anomalies remain across parts of the water column in the western Pacific. These warm anomalies currently extend to approximately 150°W, at a depth between 125m and 225m.

Indian Ocean (IOD)

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. All five international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that the IOD will remain neutral in the coming months. This is consistent with the typical life cycle of an IOD event. IOD events are typically unable to form between December and April when the monsoon trough shifts south over the tropical Indian Ocean. The latest weekly value of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index to 30 January 2022 was −0.79 °C.

Southern Ocean (Southern Annular Mode – SAM)

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently positive (as of 3 February), and is expected to remain positive over the next two to three weeks (Figure 32). A positive SAM typically increases the chance of above average rainfall for much of New South Wales during spring and summer.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) refers to the north-south shift of rain-bearing westerly winds and weather systems in the Southern Ocean compared to the usual position. This indicator can be quite volatile and generally influences weather conditions on 1-3 week timescales. SAM forecasts are highly uncertain beyond 2-3 weeks.

How does it work?

Much of the information in the Seasonal Conditions Report is sourced from the NSW DPI Enhanced Drought Information System (EDIS) ™. The EDIS system is currently available in prototype form and is subject to an intensive ground truthing process. For more information, visit the interactive website via DroughtHub.

EDIS is an ongoing project aimed at improving the quality and timeliness of efforts to monitor conditions across the state. Key features of the system are:

• It tracks drought by using four indicators; rainfall, soil water, plant growth, as well as tracing rainfall trends. Agronomic conditions have equal value to rainfall recorded at meteorological stations.
• The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) brings this information together and has been designed to characterise developing drought conditions. The key purpose for building the CDI was as a drought early warning system.
• The rainfall, soil moisture and plant growth indicators in EDIS account for conditions over a 12-month window. This provides a compromise between a highly sensitive indicator (e.g. six months) and a less sensitive indicator (e.g. 24 months).
• Climate and remote sensing data drive the information system at a high resolution, but the CDI is reported at a Parish level.
• Because of its configuration and purpose, there will be differences to the indicator used in the National Drought Monitoring Framework (the Australian Rainfall Deficiency Analyser) which relies on rainfall alone.
• The CDI has three drought categories that characterise NSW according to drought intensity as well as the main drivers of a drought event (meteorological, hydrological and agronomic). DPI considers areas Drought Affected to be experiencing a drought event.
• The Drought Affected category encompasses a wide range of conditions from the very early stages of drought entry through to a drought event becoming intense. This enables the drought monitoring system to detect a drought event early. It is also possible to stay in the Drought Affected category for some period of time.

The way in which the indicators are combined to form the CDI is described in Table 1 below.

Table 1: Description of the Combined Drought Indicator framework

The NSW State Seasonal Update is provided each month by the NSW DPI Climate Branch.

Information used in this report was primarily sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (Columbia University), Geoscience Australia’s Digital Earth Australia Program, and NSW Department of Primary Industries.

Maps in this document contain data which is © Spatial Services – NSW Department of Finance, Services and Innovation (2022), Panorama Avenue, Bathurst 2795 and data which is © Commonwealth of Australia 2022, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne. All rights reserved.

The seasonal outlooks presented in this report are obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and other sources (including World Meteorological Organisation Global Producing Centres). These outlooks are general statements about the likelihood (chance) of (for example) exceeding the median rainfall or minimum or maximum temperatures. Such probability outlooks should not be used as categorical or definitive forecasts, but should be regarded as tools to assist in risk management and decision making. Changes in seasonal outlooks may have occurred since this report was released.

All climate and remote sensing input data is supplied to the Enhanced Drought Information System ™ under the Australian Creative Commons Licence (CCY 4.0) and is made available by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network.