Prepared by NSW DPI
New South Wales continues to experience strong production conditions despite variable rainfall across the state this past month. Eastern, particularly coastal, NSW received well above average rainfall whilst the rest of the state has received average to below average rainfall for March. Most of NSW is currently in non-drought with the NSW DPI Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) showing 98% of NSW in the Non-Drought category at the end of March. At the end of March 2022, parts of eastern NSW are being impacted by severe flooding. The extent of damage to agricultural production in this region will become clearer over the coming weeks.
Average to high soil moisture, recent rainfall, and full water storages have helped to maintain ground cover and pasture availability. This also provides favourable conditions as the main crop planting window approaches in the coming weeks.
Despite strong seasonal conditions overall, parts of Western NSW and the western Murray regions continue to experience a slow, variable or delayed drought recovery. The agronomic indictors have recently improved in some regions, though consistent follow-up rain is needed to provide opportunities for longer-term drought recovery.
The latest Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Seasonal Outlook indicates moderate to high chances of above median rainfall across NSW for the three months between April and June. The ENSO Outlook status is currently at La Niña. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral and models indicate that the IOD will remain neutral in the coming months. Sea surface temperatures in the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean remain cooler than average. Warmer than average sea surface temperatures have strengthened over parts of the Maritime Continent and close to equatorial South America.
The CDI and its individual rainfall, soil moisture and crop/pasture growth metrics are leading biophysical indices of drought. Factors affecting production and economic responses usually lag the CDI. Further information about the correct interpretation of the CDI at a region and industry level is provided in the regional breakdown section of this report.
Producers and members of rural communities are encouraged to maintain contact with their local professionals who can facilitate access to appropriate support. If you or someone you know needs support, please visit DroughtHub.
It is important to recognise the CDI provides an aggregated view of NSW, and that on-ground conditions can be different to those displayed in the maps. They provide an ‘on average’ view of a particular region only. To report local conditions, use DPI Farm Tracker.
The rainfall anomaly data shows the difference between total monthly rainfall and the long-term average monthly rainfall (1961-1990; Figure 2a). Above average to well above average rainfall has been recorded along the coast and generally east of the Great Dividing Range for March. The highest rainfall anomalies were in the South East, Greater Sydney, and North Coast Local Land Service (LLS) regions. Parts of southern and western NSW have received average to below average rainfall in March.
The higher rainfall totals were recorded in the North Coast LLS region around Lismore and Coffs Harbour, and the South East region south of Wollongong where rainfall of more than 800mm has been received (Figure 2b). Areas of the Western LLS region have received less than 10mm of rainfall. For the calendar year to date coastal NSW has received between 400mm to above 1200mm of rainfall. Rainfall west of the Great Dividing Range has totalled between 10mm and 300mm (Figure 2c). Year to date rainfall has been very much above average for coastal NSW and varies between above average to below average west of the Great Dividing Range.
Eastern NSW experienced average to below average maximum temperatures for March, whilst western NSW experienced average to above average maximum temperatures (Figure 3a). The average March maximum temperatures ranged from 18°C to 30°C in eastern NSW. Areas west of the Great Dividing Range had maximum temperatures above 27°C, and above 33°C for north western areas of NSW (Figure 3b).
Minimum temperatures were generally close to or slightly above average across most of NSW in March (Figure 3c). The average March minimum temperatures were above 6°C in eastern NSW and above 12°C in the west (Figure 3d). Southern alpine regions experienced cooler temperatures generally above 6°C, whilst minimum temperatures in the Tablelands ranged from 9 to 15°C.
The seasonal Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, Figure 4) indicates that plant greenness levels are close to normal, to well above normal across most of NSW for the January to March period. Slightly lower than normal plant greenness remains evident across parts of the Western, the North West and Murray LLS regions. The white patch over Greater Sydney LLS region is missing data due to cloud cover and some of the extremely negative NDVI areas (brown patches) are water bodies.
The NSW Farm Dam Survey indicates dam levels are generally greater than 40% of capacity across eastern areas of NSW and above 80% capacity in regions that have received higher rainfall totals (Figure 5). Areas of western, southern and some coastal regions of NSW have farm dam levels less than 20% of capacity.
At the end of March and early April 2022, parts of eastern NSW continue to be impacted by recurring flooding. The extent of damage to agricultural production in this region will become clearer over the coming weeks.
The Soil Water Index (SWI, Figure 6) indicates the majority of NSW is currently in the average to above average categories. This is a result of the rainfall that has been received over the past several months. Areas of the South East LLS region are in the extremely high category. Parts of western and south-western NSW remain in the below average category and a small region in the far south west is in the extremely low category.
The Plant Growth Index (PGI, Figure 7) indicates that the majority of NSW is in the average to above average categories at the end of March. Parts of south-western and western NSW reflect a similar pattern with the SWI and are in the below average category. Areas of the South East in the extremely high category also somewhat reflect the SWI.
The Rainfall Index (RI, Figure 8) indicates that most of eastern NSW is currently in the extremely high or above average categories. This reflects the distribution of above average rainfall accumulated over the last 12 months. There is a small area in south-western NSW which is currently in the below average RI category.
The Drought Direction Index (DDI, Figure 9) tracks the 150-day trend of daily rainfall totals. The DDI indicates a strong wetting trend east of the Great Dividing Range along coastal NSW. This a result of the persisting La Niña event and east coast low pressure system delivering high rainfall events to coastal NSW. West of the Great Dividing Range, a strong drying trend is apparent across most of the state. Weaker drying trends can be seen in the North West LLS region, far west and southern areas of NSW. There is a weak wetting trend in the far north west of the state. The drying trends are a result of extremely high rainfall recorded in Spring 2021, where recent conditions in these areas have been drier relative to the wet spring period. This weak to strong drying trend does not indicate the emergence of a drought in the regions.
Changes in the individual drought indicators may have occurred since this update was released. For the most current information, please visit DroughtHub.
Figure 10 displays the CDI status for each individual Local Land Services (LLS) region to 31 March 2022. The following regional descriptions are based on data available until the end of March 2022.
The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI, Figure 11) shows that conditions in the Riverina and Murray Local Land Services (LLS) regions have remained unchanged since the February Update. All of the Riverina and most of the Murray remain in the Non-Drought or Recovery categories. The area of the Murray region in the Drought Affected category requires further rain to support long term drought recovery.
The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 12) shows that most of the Murray and Riverina regions were experiencing higher than normal plant greenness levels for the January to March period. Plant greenness levels remain lower than expected in some western areas of the Murray and central areas of the Riverina LLS regions. The impact of the 2019/2020 bush fires is still evident south of Tumut. The white patch in Figure 12 is missing data due to cloud cover.
The time series charts (Figure 13) show the individual response of the drought indices for Hay, Temora, Finley, and Moulamein. Temora and Finley remain steady with average to high soil water, plant growth and rainfall indices. Continued rainfall and average temperatures have allowed Hay to remain in the Non-Drought category. Further rainfall is required at Moulamein to maintain conditions in the region. To access a time series for your Parish, visit the Combined Drought Indicator website.
The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months and show how the indices are tracking compared to long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.
The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI, Figure 14) shows that whilst drought conditions remain variable across the region, conditions have improved since the February Update. Some areas of western and south western NSW remain in the Drought Affected category. Further rainfall is needed to support long-term drought recovery for these regions. The DPI continues to closely monitor conditions in Western LLS.
The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 15) shows variability across the Western LLS region. Much of the region is experiencing near normal to higher than expected levels of plant greenness for the January to March period. Areas in the far west and south-west continue to have lower than normal plant greenness levels.
The time series charts (Figure 16) show the individual response of the drought indices for Bourke, Ivanhoe, Wentworth, and Broken Hill. Ivanhoe remains in the Non-Drought category with high soil water, plant growth and rainfall indices. Continued rainfall is required at Bourke and Broken Hill to maintain the Non-Drought status and improve the soil water and plant growth indices. Wentworth transitioned into the Non-Drought category during March, however further rainfall is needed to support long-term drought recovery for this region. NSW continues to monitor the Western LLS region closely. To access a time series for your Parish, visit the Combined Drought Indicator website.
The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months. This shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.
The North West, Northern Tablelands and North Coast Local Land Service regions continue to experience strong conditions for production given rainfall received over the past year. The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI, Figure 17) shows that the LLS regions are in the Non-Drought category.
The North Coast experienced severe flooding given the high rainfall in March and an east coast low pressure system tracking across the region. At the time of writing this State Seasonal Update the flood status remained active in the region and communities were assessing damage. The extent of damage to agricultural production in these regions will become clearer over the coming weeks.
The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 18) indicated near to above-normal greenness across most of the regions for the January to March period. Parts of the North West have average to below average levels of greenness. The white patch in Figure 18 is missing data due to cloud cover.
The time series charts (Figure 19) show the individual response of the drought indices for Moree, Walgett, Tenterfield and Lismore. The indicators remain high at all locations. To access a time series for your Parish, visit the Combined Drought Indicator website.
The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months and shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.
The Central West, Central Tablelands, Hunter and Greater Sydney Local Land Services (LLS) regions continue to experience non-drought conditions. Productive conditions have generally been maintained due to rainfall received over the past year. The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI; Figure 20) shows that the LLS regions are in the Non-Drought category at the end of March.
Parts of the Hunter and Greater Sydney experienced localised flooding in March 2022. At the time of writing this State Seasonal Update the flood risk warnings remain active in the region. The extent of damage to agricultural production in these regions will become clearer over the coming weeks.
The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 21) shows near normal to high levels of plant greenness across most of the LLS regions for the December to February period. The white patch in Figure 12 is missing data due to cloud cover.
The time series charts (Figure 22) show the individual response of the drought indices for Cowra, Condobolin and Singleton. The CDI indicators remain high at all locations. These regions currently remain well placed for productive conditions in the coming months. To access a time series for your Parish, visit the Combined Drought Indicator website.
The CDI is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months and show how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.
The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI, Figure 23) shows that the South East Local Land Services region remains in the Non-Drought CDI category. Productive conditions have generally been maintained due to rainfall received over the past year. At the time of producing this Update, the South East region is being impacted by heavy rain and warnings of minor flooding. The extent of damage to agricultural production from recent rainfall and minor flooding will become clearer over the coming weeks.
The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 24) showed near normal to high levels of plant greenness across most of the region for the January to March period. Some areas impacted by the 2019/20 bushfires continue to have lower than average plant greenness levels. The white patch in Figure 24 is missing data due to cloud cover.
The time series charts (Figure 25) show the individual response of the drought indices at Bega, Goulburn and Cooma. The three regions remain in the Non-Drought category with high soil water, plant growth and rainfall indices. These regions currently remain well placed for productive conditions in the coming months. To access a time series for your Parish, visit the Combined Drought Indicator website.
The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months and shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.
The official national outlook was released by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) on 31 March 2022. Rainfall during April to June is likely to be above median for eastern and northern Australia. The risk of flooding remains high for eastern Australia due to high soil moisture, high stream flows, and predicted above median rainfall.
Maximum temperatures are likely to be warmer than median for western, southern, and northern Australia during the April to June period. Parts of coastal NSW are likely to be cooler than median. Minimum temperatures for April to June are likely to be above median across Australia.
The Bureau issues a new 3-month seasonal update weekly, each Thursday afternoon.
NSW has a 50% to above 80% chance of receiving above median rainfall between April and June with the higher rainfall predicted across eastern NSW (Figure 26).
The maximum temperature outlook (Figure 27) indicates a less than 25% to 45% chance of warmer than median temperatures across central and inland eastern NSW. There is a 50% to 60% chance of above median maximum temperatures across western NSW. There is a 60% to more than 75% of above median maximum temperatures along parts of eastern NSW.
There is a 60% or greater chance of warmer than median overnight temperatures across NSW (Figure 28). Most of eastern NSW has a 75% to above 80% chance of warmer overnight temperatures.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Outlook was released on 29 March 2022. The La Niña has weakened in the tropical Pacific Ocean. However, it may still contribute to weather events in the coming months. Climate models suggest that neutral ENSO conditions will return in late autumn 2022. La Niña typically increases the chance of tropical cyclones and above median rainfall in NSW during spring and summer, with a weaker influence during autumn.
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI; Figure 29) for the 30 days ending 27 March was +14.9. The 90-day SOI value was +8.9. Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña.
Sea surface temperatures (SST) along the equator in the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean remain cooler than average. Warmer than average SSTs have strengthened and increased in extent over parts of the Maritime Continent and close to equatorial South America (Figure 30).
The latest values of the three NINO indices in the tropical Pacific for the week ending 27 March were: NINO3 -0.1°C, NINO3.4 -0.7°C, NINO4 -0.7°C.
Persistent NINO3 or NINO3.4 values warmer than +0.8 °C are typical of El Niño, while persistent values cooler than −0.8 °C typically indicate La Niña.
The four-month sequence of equatorial Pacific sub-surface temperature anomalies (to 28 March 2022) shows cool anomalies deepened in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Figure 31). Warm anomalies of more than 3ºC above average down to a depth of 200m currently extend west of the International Date Line.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. All five international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that the IOD will remain neutral in the coming months. This is consistent with the typical life cycle of an IOD event. IOD events are typically unable to form between December and April when the monsoon trough shifts south over the tropical Indian Ocean. The latest weekly value of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index to 29 March 2022 was −0.21 °C.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is neutral (as of 29 March) and is expected to remain neutral over the next two weeks (Figure 32). A neutral SAM typically has very little influence on the climate in New South Wales.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) refers to the north-south shift of rain-bearing westerly winds and weather systems in the Southern Ocean compared to the usual position. This indicator can be quite volatile and generally influences weather conditions on 1-3 week timescales. SAM forecasts are highly uncertain beyond 2-3 weeks.
Much of the information in the Seasonal Conditions Report is sourced from the NSW DPI Enhanced Drought Information System (EDIS) ™. The EDIS system is currently available in prototype form and is subject to an intensive ground truthing process. For more information, visit the interactive website via DroughtHub.
EDIS is an ongoing project aimed at improving the quality and timeliness of efforts to monitor conditions across the state. Key features of the system are:
The way in which the indicators are combined to form the CDI is described in Table 1 below.
Table 1: Description of the Combined Drought Indicator framework
CDI Phase | Technical definition | Description - typical field conditions |
---|---|---|
Intense Drought | All three indicators (rainfall, soil water, plant growth) are below the 5th percentile | Ground cover is very low, soil moisture stores are exhausted and rainfall has been minimal over the past 6-12 months. |
Drought | At least one indicator is below the 5th percentile | Conditions may be very dry, or agronomic production is tight (low soil moisture or plant growth). It is possible to be in Drought when there has been some modest growth, or a few falls of rain. |
Drought Affected (intensifying) | At least one indicator is below the 30th percentile and the rainfall trend is negative over the past 90 days. | Conditions are deteriorating; production is beginning to get tighter. Ground cover may be modest, but growth is moderate to low for the time of year. When indicators are close to the Drought threshold drought conditions are severe. |
Drought Affected (weakening) | At least one indicator is below the 30th percentile and the rainfall trend is positive over the past 90 days. | Production conditions are getting tighter, but there have been some falls of rain over the past month. It is rare to enter the Recovering phase from the Non-Drought category; Usually there is a quick (1-2 week) transition into Drought Affected or Drought. When indicators are close to the Drought threshold drought conditions are severe. |
Recovering | All indicators are below the 50th percentile but above the 30th percentile | Production is occurring but would be considered ‘below average’. Full production recovery may not have occurred if this area has experienced drought conditions over the past six months. |
Non-drought | At least one indicator is above the 50th percentile. | Production is not limited by climatic conditions. |
The NSW State Seasonal Update is provided each month by the NSW DPI Climate Branch.
Information used in this report was primarily sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (Columbia University), Geoscience Australia’s Digital Earth Australia Program, and NSW Department of Primary Industries.
Maps in this document contain data which is © Spatial Services – NSW Department of Finance, Services and Innovation (2022), Panorama Avenue, Bathurst 2795 and data which is © Commonwealth of Australia 2022, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne. All rights reserved.
The seasonal outlooks presented in this report are obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and other sources (including World Meteorological Organisation Global Producing Centres). These outlooks are general statements about the likelihood (chance) of (for example) exceeding the median rainfall or minimum or maximum temperatures. Such probability outlooks should not be used as categorical or definitive forecasts, but should be regarded as tools to assist in risk management and decision making. Changes in seasonal outlooks may have occurred since this report was released.
All climate and remote sensing input data is supplied to the Enhanced Drought Information System ™ under the Australian Creative Commons Licence (CCY 4.0) and is made available by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network.
© State of New South Wales through the Department of Regional NSW, 2022. You may copy, distribute and otherwise freely deal with this publication for any purpose, provided that you attribute the NSW Department of Primary Industries as the owner.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this publication is based on knowledge and understanding at the time of writing (March 2022). However, because of advances in knowledge, users are reminded of the need to ensure that information upon which they rely is up to date and to check currency of the information with the appropriate officer of the Department of Primary Industries or the user’s independent adviser.
Published by the NSW Department of Primary Industries. ISSN 2202-1795 (Online). Volume 11 Issue 3.