NSW State Seasonal Update - October 2021



Prepared by NSW DPI

NSW overview

Near average rainfall for October 2021 underpins a continuing strong seasonal production outlook for much of New South Wales. The NSW DPI Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) shows 82% of NSW in the Recovery or Non-Drought categories at the end of October. This is a slight decrease since the September Update. The seasonal rainfall outlook indicates moderate to high chances of above median rainfall across NSW for the next three months.

Despite the strong overall outlook Western NSW and western areas of the Riverina and Murray regions continue to experience a slow, variable or delayed drought recovery. The agronomic indictors of the CDI remain at low levels across parts of these regions and consistent follow-up rain is needed. There have been on-ground reports of dust storms affecting the far west of NSW.

The 2021 winter crop yield potential remains high and harvesting has commenced in the north west of NSW. The irrigated crop forecast for the 2021-22 season is similarly strong due to high soil moisture levels and water availability in the state’s reservoirs and irrigation systems. Water availability is expected to support a strong irrigated crop forecast for the 2021-22 season. While the main winter frost season is now over, there is still the risk of out of season frost events.

Pasture growth potential and livestock productivity remain high across most of NSW due to recent rainfall and high soil moisture levels. In many districts the nutritional value of pasture for livestock will start to plateau then decline as the temperatures warm.

The latest Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Seasonal Outlook indicates moderate to high chances of above median rainfall across NSW for the three months between November and January. The ENSO Outlook status is currently at La Niña Alert. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the negative phase and most models indicate that the IOD will return to neutral in in late spring or early summer. Pacific Ocean sea-surface indicators remain in a neutral state.

The CDI and its individual rainfall, soil moisture and crop/pasture growth metrics are leading biophysical indices of drought. Factors affecting production and economic responses usually lag the CDI. Further information about the correct interpretation of the CDI at a region and industry level is provided in the regional breakdown section of this report.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

It is important to recognise the CDI provides an aggregated view of the State, and that on-ground conditions can be different to those displayed in the maps. They provide an ‘on average’ view of a particular region only. To report local conditions, use DPI Farm Tracker.

Rainfall

The rainfall anomaly data shows the difference between total monthly rainfall and the long-term average (1961-1990; Figure 2a). Most of NSW has received near average to below average rainfall in October. Parts of north-eastern and south-eastern NSW have received average to above average rainfall.

Rainfall totals were variable across NSW during October (Figure 2b). The highest rainfall totals were received in eastern parts of the Riverina and Murray, North Coast and South East LLS regions (above 100mm). Elsewhere rainfall totals ranged between 10-100mm. Parts of the far west received less than 10mm.

Rainfall accumulation during the 2021 calendar year has been near or above average across most of NSW. Most of coastal NSW and the Tablelands areas have received more than 600mm in the year (Figure 2c). Parts of the North Coast and alpine regions have received more than 1400mm during the year. Central areas west of the Great Dividing Range have generally received between 300-600mm, while eastern areas of the Western LLS region have recorded 200- 400mm. Total rainfall accumulation in the far west has been below 200mm for the year.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Temperature

Most of NSW experienced near average maximum temperatures during October (Figure 3a). The average October maximum temperatures were generally above 18°C across NSW, with cooler temperatures in the Central Tablelands and Alpine regions (Figure 3b). Much of northern NSW received maximum temperatures ranging between 24-33°C.

Minimum temperatures were near average across most of NSW in October (Figure 3c). Mean minimum temperatures ranged between 3-15°C across most of the state (Figure 3d). Tablelands and Alpine regions at higher altitudes experienced cooler temperatures between 0 to 3°C.

The frost days map (Figure 3e) shows the number of days that minimum temperatures were less than 0°C across the state in September. The number of frost days has reduced compared to winter months.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Anomaly

The seasonal Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, Figure 4) indicates that plant greenness levels are close to, or above normal across most of NSW for the August to October period. Lower than normal plant greenness remains evident across large areas of the Western LLS. Some areas affected by the 2019/20 bushfires in the Central Tablelands, Northern NSW and South East continue to have below average seasonal NDVI values.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

NSW Farm Dam Survey

The NSW Farm Dam Survey indicates large areas of western NSW have farm dam levels less than 20% of capacity (Figure 5). Dam levels are generally greater than 40% of capacity across eastern areas of the state and greater than 80% across central NSW.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Soil Water Index

The Soil Water Index (SWI, Figure 6) indicates the majority of NSW is currently in the average to above average categories. Parts of western and south-western NSW were in the below average to extremely low category. NSW DPI is monitoring these regions closely.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Plant Growth Index

The Plant Growth Index (PGI, Figure 7) indicates that the majority of NSW is in the average to above average categories at the end of October. Parts of south-western, western and the North Coast and Hunter regions were in the below average category. There is an area extending to the north and east of Broken Hill in the extremely low PGI category.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Rainfall Index

The Rainfall Index (RI, Figure 8) indicates that the majority of NSW is currently in the average to extremely high category. This reflects the distribution of accumulated rainfall over the last 12 months. Western parts of the Murray, Riverina, and Western LLS regions are in the below average category. Smaller areas in the far west of the Western LLS region are in the extremely low RI category.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Drought Direction Index

The Drought Direction Index (DDI, Figure 9) tracks the 150-day trend of daily rainfall totals. The DDI indicates much of NSW is in a neutral to drying trend. This reflects a short-term drying of the landscape that has occurred in late Winter and early Spring. This was preceded by very wet conditions in the Autumn and early Winter of 2021.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Changes in the individual drought indicators may have occurred since this update was released. For the most current information, please visit DroughtHub.

CDI status for the regions

Figure 10 displays the CDI status for each individual Local Land Services (LLS) region to 31 October 2021. The following regional descriptions are based on data available until the end of October 2021.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Murray and Riverina regions

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI; Figure 11) shows that large areas of the western Riverina and Murray Local Land Services (LLS) regions continue to remain in the Drought Affected category at the end of October. Further rain is needed to lift longer-term confidence of drought recovery and rainfall is a key focus prior to the onset of hot summer conditions. Rainfall and agronomic conditions further east underpin a strong seasonal outlook.

The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 12) shows that most of the Murray and Riverina regions were experiencing near to or higher than normal plant greenness levels for the August to October period. Plant greenness levels remain lower than expected in western areas of the Murray and Riverina LLS regions. The impact of the 2019/2020 bush fires is still evident south of Tumut.

The time series charts (Figure 13) show the individual response of the drought indices for Hay, Finley, Temora and Moulamein. Temora and Finley remain steady with average to high soil water, plant growth and rainfall indices. Further rainfall is required at Hay and Moulamein to improve conditions. Variable, weak or delayed drought recovery has occurred in these areas due to lower rainfall during 2020/21.

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months and show how the indices are tracking compared to long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.auFor an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Western region

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI; Figure 14) shows that drought conditions are variable across the region. While much of the eastern part of this region is in the Non-Drought or Recovering CDI category, the area in the Drought Affected category has expanded in the far west during October. The agronomic indicators of the CDI remain at low levels across many parts of the Western LLS, highlighting the need for consistent follow-up rain. The DPI continues to monitor conditions closely across the Western LLS.

The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 15) shows variability across the Western LLS region. Much of the region is experiencing near normal or higher levels of plant greenness for the August to October period. Large areas of the far west have low plant greenness levels, along with parts of the region near Bourke.

The time series charts (Figure 16) show the individual response of the drought indices for Bourke, Ivanhoe and Wentworth. Ivanhoe remains in the Non-Drought category with high soil water, plant growth and rainfall indices. Continued rainfall is required at Bourke to maintain the Non-Drought status. Wentworth is currently in the Drought Affected category and rainfall is required to improve conditions. NSW continues to monitor the Western LLS region closely.  To access a time series for your Parish, visit the Combined Drought Indicator website.

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months. This shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

North West, Northern Tablelands and North Coast regions

The North West, Northern Tablelands and North Coast Local Land Service regions continue longer-term drought recovery. Productive conditions have generally been maintained due to rainfall received throughout the year. The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI; Figure 17) shows that the LLS regions are in the Non-Drought category.

The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 18) indicated near to above-normal greenness across most of the regions for the August to October period.

The time series charts (Figure 19) show the individual response of the drought indices for Moree, Walgett, Tenterfield and Lismore. The indicators remain steady at Moree and Tenterfield with high soil water, plant growth and rainfall indices. Walgett and Lismore have remained in the Non-Drought category since the September Update. To access a time series for your Parish, visit the Combined Drought Indicator website.

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months and shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Central Tablelands, Central West, Hunter and Greater Sydney regions

Most of the Central West, Central Tablelands, Hunter and Greater Sydney Local Land Services (LLS) regions remained in the Non-Drought CDI category in October (Figure 20). The regions remain in a strong position heading into the summer period, with average to above average soil water levels in many areas. Parts of the Hunter LLS have transitioned into the Drought Affected category. The NSW DPI continues to monitor the region closely.

The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 21) shows near normal to high levels of plant greenness across most of the LLS regions for the August to October period. The 2019/20 bushfire impact is still evident in parts of the Central Tablelands, lower Hunter and west of Greater Sydney.

The time series charts (Figure 22) show the individual response of the drought indices for Cowra, Condobolin and Singleton. Follow-up rainfall has supported the CDI indicators at all locations and there is evidence of a strong drought recovery. These regions currently remain well placed for productive conditions in the coming months.

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months and show how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this map contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.auFor an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

South East region

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI; Figure 23) shows that most of the South East Local Land Services region is in the Non-Drought CDI category. The South East LLS region remains well positioned as it heads into the summer period. The CDI shows that an area around Nowra is currently in the Drought Affected category. Further rainfall is needed to improve conditions in this region.

The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 24) shows near normal to high levels of plant greenness across most of the region for the August to October period. The areas impacted by the 2019/20 bushfires continue to have lower than average plant greenness levels.

The time series charts (Figure 25) show the individual response of the drought indices at Bega, Goulburn and Cooma. The three regions remain in the Non-Drought category high soil water, plant growth and rainfall indices. These regions currently remain well placed for productive conditions in the coming months.

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators track the data over the past 12 months and shows how the indices are tracking compared to the long-term averages. The information provided in the map is aggregated to a Parish level and provides a regional assessment of conditions. Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI map.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Official national outlook

The official national outlook was released by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) on 4 November 2021. Rainfall during November to January is likely to be above median for much of the eastern two-thirds of Australia and eastern parts of Western Australia. Elsewhere there is near equal chance of above or below median rainfall.

Maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for the western region of Western Australia, the north-east coastline and the far south-east of Australia. Below median maximum temperatures are likely for central Australia, southern Queensland and eastern New South Wales. November to January minimum temperatures are likely to be above median across most of across Australia.

The Bureau issues a new 3-month seasonal update weekly, each Thursday afternoon.

NSW outlook

Most of NSW has a moderate to high chance of receiving above median rainfall between November and January (Figure 26). The maximum temperature outlook indicates moderate to high chances of cooler than median temperatures in coastal and central regions of NSW (Figure 27). Elsewhere there is near equal chance of above or below median maximum temperatures. There is a moderate to high probability of warmer than median minimum temperatures across the state (Figure 28).

Figure 26. Seasonal rainfall outlook for NSW issued on 28 October 2021

Figure 27. Seasonal maximum temperature outlook for NSW issued on 28 October 2021

Figure 28. Seasonal minimum temperature outlook for NSW issued on 28 October 2021

Global climate drivers

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Outlook was released on 26 October 2021 and the current ENSO status is neutral. Sea surface and sub-surface temperatures have continued to cool in the central tropical Pacific over recent months and the ENSO outlook is currently at La Niña ALERT, indicating a 70% likelihood of development. All seven models surveyed by the BoM are predicted to meet La Niña thresholds during November, with five of the models indicating sustained La Niña values until January 2022. La Niña typically increases the chance of above median rainfall in NSW during spring and summer.

Southern Oscillation Index

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the 30 days ending 24 October 2021 was +11.6. The 90-day SOI value was +7.5. Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Sea surface temperatures (SST)

Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific Ocean have cooled over the past three months. Warmer than average SSTs persist across the far western Pacific, including parts of the Maritime Continent and waters around northern Australia. Areas of slightly cooler than average SSTs have increased in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific in the past month.

The latest values of the three NINO indices in the tropical Pacific for the week ending 24 October were: NINO3 -0.5°C, NINO3.4 -0.6°C, NINO4 -0.2°C. All three NINO indices are within the ENSO-neutral range.

Persistent NINO3 or NINO3.4 values warmer than +0.8 °C are typical of El Niño, while persistent values cooler than −0.8 °C typically indicate La Niña.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Sea sub-surface temperatures

The four-month sequence of equatorial Pacific sub-surface temperature anomalies (to 25 October) shows cool anomalies continued to develop in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during October. Sub-surface anomalies reached up to 4ºC cooler than average in the central Pacific at a depth of 150m. Weak warm anomalies are present across parts of the water column in the western Pacific.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Indian Ocean (IOD)

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the negative phase. Four of the five international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicated that the IOD will return to neutral in late spring or early summer, consistent with the typical life cycle of an IOD event.  The latest weekly value of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index to 24 October 2021 was −0.57 °C.

A negative IOD event increases the chances of above average spring rainfall for parts of southern and eastern Australia.

Southern Ocean (Southern Annular Mode – SAM)

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is positive. It is likely to remain mostly positive through December due to strengthened westerly winds around Antarctica and the developing La Niña. A positive SAM typically increases the chance of above average rainfall for much of New South Wales during spring and summer.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) refers to the north-south shift of rain-bearing westerly winds and weather systems in the Southern Ocean compared to the usual position. This indicator can be quite volatile and generally influences weather conditions on 1-3 week timescales. SAM forecasts are highly uncertain beyond 2-3 weeks.

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

How does it work?

For an accessible explanation of this image contact the author seasonal.conditions@dpi.nsw.gov.au

Much of the information in the Seasonal Conditions Report is sourced from the NSW DPI Enhanced Drought Information System (EDIS) ™. The EDIS system is currently available in prototype form and is subject to an intensive ground truthing process. For more information, visit the interactive website via DroughtHub.

EDIS is an ongoing project aimed at improving the quality and timeliness of efforts to monitor conditions across the state. Key features of the system are:

  • It tracks drought by using four indicators; rainfall, soil water, plant growth, as well as tracing rainfall trends. Agronomic conditions have equal value to rainfall recorded at meteorological stations.
  • The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) brings this information together and has been designed to characterise developing drought conditions. The key purpose for building the CDI was as a drought early warning system.
  • The rainfall, soil moisture and plant growth indicators in EDIS account for conditions over a 12-month window. This provides a compromise between a highly sensitive indicator (e.g. six months) and a less sensitive indicator (e.g. 24 months).
  • Climate and remote sensing data drive the information system at a high resolution, but the CDI is reported at a Parish level.
  • Because of its configuration and purpose, there will be differences to the indicator used in the National Drought Monitoring Framework (the Australian Rainfall Deficiency Analyser) which relies on rainfall alone.
  • The CDI has three drought categories that characterise NSW according to drought intensity as well as the main drivers of a drought event (meteorological, hydrological and agronomic). DPI considers areas Drought Affected to be experiencing a drought event.
  • The Drought Affected category encompasses a wide range of conditions from the very early stages of drought entry through to a drought event becoming intense. This enables the drought monitoring system to detect a drought event early. It is also possible to stay in the Drought Affected category for some period of time.

The way in which the indicators are combined to form the CDI is described in Table 1 below.

Table 1: Description of the Combined Drought Indicator framework

CDI Phase

Technical definition

Description - typical field conditions

Intense Drought

All three indicators (rainfall, soil water, plant growth) are below the 5th percentile

Ground cover is very low, soil moisture stores are exhausted and rainfall has been minimal over the past 6-12 months.

Drought

At least one indicator is below the 5th percentile

Conditions may be very dry, or agronomic production is tight (low soil moisture or plant growth). It is possible to be in Drought when there has been some modest growth, or a few falls of rain.

Drought Affected (intensifying)

At least one indicator is below the 30th percentile and the rainfall trend is negative over the past 90 days.

Conditions are deteriorating; production is beginning to get tighter. Ground cover may be modest, but growth is moderate to low for the time of year. When indicators are close to the Drought threshold drought conditions are severe.

Drought Affected (weakening)

At least one indicator is below the 30th percentile and the rainfall trend is positive over the past 90 days.

Production conditions are getting tighter, but there have been some falls of rain over the past month. It is rare to enter the Recovering phase from the Non-Drought category; Usually there is a quick (1-2 week) transition into Drought Affected or Drought. When indicators are close to the Drought threshold drought conditions are severe.

Recovering

All indicators are below the 50th percentile but above the 30th percentile

Production is occurring but would be considered ‘below average’. Full production recovery may not have occurred if this area has experienced drought conditions over the past six months.

Non-drought

At least one indicator is above the 50th percentile.

Production is not limited by climatic conditions.

The NSW State Seasonal Update is provided each month by the NSW DPI Climate Branch.

Information used in this report was primarily sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (Columbia University), Geoscience Australia’s Digital Earth Australia Program, and NSW Department of Primary Industries.

Maps in this document contain data which is © Spatial Services – NSW Department of Finance, Services and Innovation (2021), Panorama Avenue, Bathurst 2795 and data which is © Commonwealth of Australia 2021, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne. All rights reserved.

The seasonal outlooks presented in this report are obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and other sources (including World Meteorological Organisation Global Producing Centres). These outlooks are general statements about the likelihood (chance) of (for example) exceeding the median rainfall or minimum or maximum temperatures. Such probability outlooks should not be used as categorical or definitive forecasts, but should be regarded as tools to assist in risk management and decision making. Changes in seasonal outlooks may have occurred since this report was released.

All climate and remote sensing input data is supplied to the Enhanced Drought Information System ™ under the Australian Creative Commons Licence (CCY 4.0) and is made available by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network.