NSW State Seasonal Update - January 2024

Prepared by NSW DPI

NSW overview

Drought conditions continue for much of NSW

• The NSW DPI Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) shows that 53% of NSW is in one of the three drought categories at the end of January 2024 (Figure 1).
• Widespread follow up rainfall throughout January has continued to ease drought conditions for some areas of NSW and the production outlooks in other areas maintained or improved.
• However, some areas are still managing the impacts of the long-term drought event, particularly in the Hunter and North Coast LLS regions, and 46% of NSW remains in the NSW CDI Drought Affected category.
• The decision-making environment continues to be challenging for many NSW farmers. Available remote sensing information of pasture conditions highlights that there is considerable variability within and between regions. Farm water supply is also variable across many regions due to hot conditions and variable rainfall throughout January.
• Although there are signs of recovery for some regions, further rainfall is critical in aiding a longer-term drought recovery.

Current Conditions

• Summer rainfall provided further relief from drought conditions in areas like the North Coast, South East and central NSW.
• The widespread rainfall has assisted pasture production in some regions and eased supplementary feeding programs. Further follow up rainfall over the coming months is critical in these regions for a sustained recovery from drought.
• Parts of the Northern Tablelands, North West and Hunter rainfall percentiles for January 2024 were below the 20^th percentile, which has slowed the recovery from drought in these areas.
• Rainfall events in the central and south of the state has seen the Recovery category of the CDI expand slightly since the December update.
• Warm conditions have continued across the majority of NSW through January, with temperatures between 24^oC and 39^oC recorded. Continued high temperatures will impact soil water values in many areas due to higher evapotranspiration rates.
• Rainfall outlooks are variable and below median for the February to April forecast period across most of NSW; temperatures are likely to be well above median values.

Seasonal Climate Outlook and Climate Drivers Update – January to March 2024

The outlook is for very warm conditions across NSW and a decreased chance of above median rainfall for much of NSW in the February to April period.

• The seasonal rainfall outlook indicates that there is 35% to 55% chance of above median rainfall for most of NSW for the February to April period. Parts of eastern NSW and the far west have a 20 – 40% chance of above median rainfall for this outlook period.
• Temperatures are expected to be well above median across NSW for the outlook period.
• The ENSO Outlook status is at El Niño and the Southern Oscillation Index is positive.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) value is neutral and the Bureau of Meteorology suggest the IOD values will remain neutral until at least April.
• Other climate drivers like the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and local systems continue to bring the prospect of instability in week-to-week weather during this forecast period.

The CDI and its individual rainfall, soil moisture and crop/pasture growth metrics are leading biophysical indices of seasonal conditions and drought status. Other factors affecting production and economic responses usually lag the CDI. Further information about the correct interpretation of the CDI at a region and industry level is provided in the regional breakdown section of this report .

It is important to recognise the CDI provides an aggregated view of NSW, and that on-ground conditions can be different to those displayed in the maps. They provide an ‘on average’ view of a particular region only.

Rainfall

Variable rainfall during January

• Rainfall was widespread but variable across NSW during January, reflecting the instability in week-to-week weather events (Figure 2a).
• Large areas of NSW received 25mm to 200mm of rainfall.
• There was in excess of 200mm in parts of the North Coast LLS region, including rain resulting in minor flooding in some locations on the far North Coast.
• At the time of writing this Update the remnants of ex-tropical cyclone Kirrily is brining rainfall to the far northwest of NSW. The effects of this system on farm dam levels will be reported in the next update.

Higher rainfall for much of NSW relative to long term records

• The January rainfall percentile map ranks the total rainfall for January 2024 compared to long term records from 1981-2020 (Figure 2b).
• January rainfall was above the 60^th percentile of the historical record for large parts of NSW. Some areas of the state had falls above the 90^th percentile.
• Parts of the Hunter, Northern Tablelands, Central West and South East had lower rain totals in January 2024 relative to long term records, with falls in the 10-40^th percentile range. This has slowed the recovery from drought conditions in these regions.
• Producers continue to monitor conditions and forecasts closely.

Temperature

Higher than average maximum temperatures for most of NSW

• In January, the average maximum temperatures ranged from 15°C in the southern alpine region to above 36°C in the northwest of NSW (Figure 3a).
• Above average maximum temperatures were experienced across most of northern NSW in January. Maximum temperatures were generally between 0°C and 2°C above average (Figure 3b).
• Below average maximum temperatures were experience across most of southern NSW. Temperatures were generally between 0°C and 2°C below average (Figure 3b).
• These higher temperatures have impacted soil moisture levels and farm water storages in many areas.

Near average minimum temperatures for most of NSW

• Minimum temperatures were generally between 9°C and 27°C for most of NSW. The warmest temperatures (above 24°C) were in the far northwest of the state (Figure 3c).
• Minimum temperature anomalies were generally between 0°C and 2°C above average for most of NSW during January (Figure 3d).

Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Anomaly

Plant greenness levels are variable across NSW.

• The seasonal Normalised Difference Vegetation Index anomaly (NDVI) indicates that plant greenness levels are variable across NSW (Figure 4).
• There has been an improvement in plant greenness over the past month and many areas have above normal plant greenness levels.
• Areas of below average plant greenness have contracted across the Central West, Hunter, North Coast and Central Tablelands Local Land Services areas since the December Update as pastures respond to rainfall events and feed availability improves.
• Areas of below average plant greenness have intensified in the Northern Tablelands near Glen Innes, potentially due to hot temperatures and ineffective rainfall events.
• The impacts of the December bushfire in the Pilliga between Coonabarabran and Narrabri are evident in this month’s Update.
• Some of the extremely negative NDVI areas (brown patches) are water bodies.

Decision support for drought feeding livestock

NSW Department of Primary Industries’ Drought & Supp Feed Calculator app has been re-released to support NSW livestock producers with their decision making as seasonal conditions change.

The Drought & Supp Feed Calculator simplifies decision making for livestock producers by enabling users to assess pastures and work out feed requirement and if supplementary feeding is needed, compare different supplements and ration mixes, and calculate the costs of different feeding options.

Search for Drought & Supp Feed Calculator and download the application from your app store.

NSW Farm Dam Survey

Water availability is highly variable across NSW

• The NSW Farm Dam Survey indicates that farm dam levels are average to above average across many parts of central, eastern and southern NSW (Figure 5a).
• Dam levels have remained steady along the NSW coast and hinterland. There has been an improvement in farm dam levels in the Central West, and north west areas of the Western LLS region.
• Large areas of central and western NSW have dam levels below 40% capacity.
• The influence of recent rainfall on farm dam levels is evident in parts of NSW, with the average farm dam area above 60%.
• At the time of writing this Update the remnants of ex-tropical cyclone Kirrily is brining rainfall to the far north west of NSW. The effects of this system on farm dam levels will not be known until the next update.
• The farm dam assessment was not possible for some parts of NSW in January due to missing data.

NSW DPI Farm Tracker Reports

NSW DPI Farm Tracker Application reports are completed by users across NSW. One report provided an on-ground drought assessment in January and the assessment indicates that the area reported is experiencing a mild drought (Figure 5b).

Tools for farmers to monitor and report seasonal conditions

The Farm Tracker application is freely available and can be used to help monitor seasonal conditions on your property. Completing a report allows a user to create a geotagged photo diary, monitor dam levels, or record changes at an individual paddock level.

This information provides a detailed and visual record of a farm over time that can be invaluable for budgeting, planning and decision making. The data collected for each farm is not available for other people to see or search.

Reports are also used by NSW DPI as a highly valuable information source to ground truth products from the DPI Seasonal Conditions Monitoring Program. Farmers data remains anonymous in this use.

Search for NSWDPI Farm Tracker and download the application from your app store.

Individual drought indicators

The individual indicators are displayed at a 1km² gridded resolution. This allows readers to explore the indicator values (percentile scale 0-100) at a much higher level of detail.

The colour scale for each map transitions to a grey scale at the 30^th percentile. The 30^th percentile is one of the critical thresholds that DPI uses to monitor drought intensity (the threshold for Drought Affected). The grey scale also shows the 5^th percentile used to delineate Drought and Intense Drought.

The Soil Water, Plant Growth and Rainfall indicators are all calculated by taking the mean of daily values over the last 12 months and ranking them relative to a 40-year baseline period. This configuration is used to detect moderate to severe drought events with a multiple season duration. The indicators track large changes and are not overtly sensitive to day-to-day or recent conditions over the past month, so lag physical conditions in the field at the time of observation.

Soil Water Index

The Soil Water Index (SWI) shows conditions are variable across NSW.

• Follow up rainfall over January has aided the continued improvement in the SWI for much of NSW (Figure 6). Many areas, particularly in southern NSW are in a strong production position going into autumn.
• Despite widespread rain, there is below the 30^th percentile SWI values for large areas of central, northern, and eastern NSW. Parts of western NSW also have below average SWI values. Warm daytime and overnight temperatures, along with variable rainfall totals have contributed to this.
• Substantial rainfall in still needed in the east and north of NSW to trigger a substantial improvement in the SWI.

Plant Growth Index

Plant Growth Index values remain stable.

• The Plant Growth Index shows a continued improvement in the PGI since the December Update (Figure 7), with many areas seeing a pasture response to rainfall in December and January.
• Many areas, particularly in southern and western NSW are in a strong production position going into autumn.
• Large areas of central, northern, and eastern NSW continue to have below average PGI values.
• Continued follow up rainfall over the coming weeks and conditions that aid plant growth is needed to see further improvement in the PGI, particularly those areas below the 30^th percentile.

Rainfall Index

Rainfall Index values remain variable.

• The Rainfall Index (RI) is variable across the state (Figure 8).
• Follow up rainfall over January has aided the continued improvement in the RI for much of NSW. Many areas, particularly in southern NSW are in a strong position going into autumn.
• Recent rainfall has resulted in the improvement in the RI values across some parts of NSW. However further rainfall is needed to maintain or improve conditions.
• At the time of writing this Update the remnants of ex-tropical cyclone Kirrily is brining rainfall to the north west of NSW. The effects of this system on the individual drought indicators will be reported in the next update.

Drought Direction Index

Drying trend continues for most of NSW.

• The Drought Direction Index (DDI) tracks the 150-day trend of the rainfall index (Figure 9).
• Most of NSW is showing a weak drying trend.
• Areas in the North Coast and South East LLS regions currently have weak to strong wetting trend, due to follow up rainfall in January with large rainfall totals at some locations.
• This indicator reflects the extremely dry rainfall pattern experienced in NSW during Winter and Spring 2023.
• Shorter term (30-60 day) positive trends in the drought indices are evident at many locations (refer to the Regional Breakdown section for examples).

Changes in the individual drought indicators may have occurred since this update was released. For the most current information, please visit DroughtHub.

NSW outlook February to April 2024

(issued 1 February 2024)

Below median rainfall outlook for much of NSW.

• The seasonal rainfall outlook indicates that there is a slightly lower than normal chance (between 35% to 55%) of above median rainfall for most of NSW for the February to April period (Figure 10).
• Parts of eastern NSW and the far west have a 20 – 40% chance of above median rainfall for this outlook period.
• Forecast releases have been highly variable over the December -January period.  Rainfall outlook probabilities shifted from largely positive values at the beginning of January to the negative values in the February 1 release.
• This reflects updated observational information and changes to systems like the Southern Annular mode and trade winds. It is important to check forecasts regularly.

Warm to hot conditions to continue for much of NSW. 

• The maximum temperature outlook indicates a 60% to above 80% chance of exceeding median daytime temperatures across NSW during the forecast period (Figure 11).
• There is a 75% to above 80% chance of warmer than median overnight temperatures across all of NSW during the forecast period (Figure 12).

Official national outlook

The official national outlook was released by the Bureau of Meteorology on 1 February 2024.

• The rainfall outlook for February to April shows that there is a 60 to 80% chance of below median rainfall for most of Australia.
• Maximum temperatures for February to April have a likely to very likely chance (60 to 80%) of being warmer than average for most of Australia.
• Minimum temperatures for the February to April period have a likely to very likely (60% to 80%) chance of being warmer than average for large parts of Australia.
• Forecast accuracy at this time of year has generally been moderate to high for most of Australia. The Bureau issues a new 3-month seasonal update weekly, each Thursday afternoon.

Global climate drivers

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• The Bureau of Meteorology’s El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Outlook was released on 6 February 2024, with indications it has likely peaked.
• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific Ocean continue to exceed El Niño thresholds while most atmospheric indicators over the Pacific are close to normal levels.
• The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is neutral.
• Models indicate that sea surface temperatures will return to neutral in autumn 2024.

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

• The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the 30 days ending 4 February 2024 was +0.7 (Figure 13). The 90-day SOI value was -2.7.
• Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña.

Sea surface temperatures (SST)

• Monthly sea surface temperatures (SST) were warmer than average across the tropical Pacific Ocean (Figure 14).
• Warm SST anomalies persist along the eastern Australian coastline, from central Queensland south to Tasmania. Warm anomalies also remain in the Tasman Sea.
• Warm anomalies are also present in parts of the Southern Ocean.
• Cool SST anomalies are present in the Great Australian Bight and off the Pilbara coast in Western Australia.
• The latest values of the three NINO indices in the tropical Pacific for the week ending 4 February were: NINO3 +1.41^oC, NINO3.4 +1.40^oC, NINO4 +1.332^oC (sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology on 6 February 2024).
• Persistent NINO3 or NINO3.4 values warmer than +0.8^oC are typical of El Niño, while persistent values cooler than −0.8^oC typically indicate La Niña.

Sub-surface sea temperatures

• The four-month sequence of equatorial Pacific sub-surface temperature anomalies (to 31 January 2024) shows warm anomalies across most of the Pacific basin for the top 50m in depth (Figure 15). These warm anomalies reached more than 3.0^oC above average in the east of the basin.
• Cooler than average waters are present between 100m and 200m in depth, extending across the basin to 100°W.
• The magnitude and extent of cool anomalies has increased across the past few months.
• This pattern of a layer of warmer than average waters above a layer of cooler than average waters is typical of the declining phase of El Niño.

Indian Ocean (Indian Ocean Dipole - IOD)

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) values have weakened.

• The latest weekly value of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index to 4 February 2024 was +0.3^oC.
• The Bureau of Meteorology advises that the IOD index has fallen below the +0.4^oC threshold (at a weekly timescale) for two consecutive weeks indicating the event has come to an end.
• The international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest the IOD values will remain neutral until at least April.

Southern Ocean (Southern Annular Mode – SAM)

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently neutral, as of 6 February (Figure 16).

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) refers to the north-south shift of rain-bearing westerly winds and weather systems in the Southern Ocean compared to their usual position. During summer a positive SAM increases the chance of above average rainfall for parts of eastern NSW. This indicator can be quite volatile and generally influences weather conditions on 1-to-3-week timescales.

CDI status for the regions

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is a tool that monitors drought conditions across NSW. The drought categories are based on assessing the response of three drought indicators: soil water, plant growth and rainfall. The indicators take data over the past 12 months and rank how these conditions sit within the past 40 years of variability. The drought indicators reflect large changes not week to week variability and can lag on-ground conditions.

The information provided in this section provides a regional assessment of conditions (Figure 17). Variability within and between farms is possible and this may not be reflected in the CDI products. The following regional descriptions are based on data available until the end of January2023.

Murray and Riverina regions

The production outlook continues to improve across the LLS regions.

• Conditions continue to improve across the Murray and Riverina LLS regions.
• Following widespread rain the Murray LLS region is now in the Non-Drought category at the end of January, while the Riverina LLS region is in either the Recovery or Non-Drought category (Figure 18).
• The production outlook remains strong for the two regions.
• Producers continue to monitor forecasts closely and implement management strategies as required for their enterprises, particularly through the remainder of summer and into autumn.
• The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 19) shows that levels of plant greenness are variable across the two regions.
• There has been an improvement in the plant greenness values since the December update, as pastures respond to follow up January rainfall. Most areas continue to experience normal to higher-than-normal plant greenness levels.
• Areas with below average levels of greenness indicate low levels of ground cover and standing dry matter available for livestock.
• Some of the extremely negative NDVI areas (brown patches) represent water.

Drought indicators have responded to rainfall over recent months.

• The Drought History charts show the individual response of the drought indicators for Finley, Hay, Moulamein and Temora (Figure 20).
• The indicators have responded at all locations due to recent rainfall over the past months.
• Producers continue to monitor conditions closely in conjunction with forecasts and outlooks.
• To access a Drought History chart for your Parish, visit the Seasonal Conditions Information Portal.

Figure 18. Combined Drought Indicator for the Murray and Riverina regions

Figure 19. NDVI anomaly map for the Murray and Riverina LLS regions

Western region

Western region producers are monitoring their local seasonal conditions and forecasts closely in line with their production systems.

• Conditions remain complex in the Wester LLS region. Available remote sensing data shows that there is large spatial variability across the region.
• Rainfall has been above average across the region during January and the extent in the Non-Drought and Recovery categories has increased since the December Update. However large areas of the region remain in the Drought Affected category (Figure 21).
• It is expected that more areas in the west of the region will transition into the Recovery category in the coming weeks. Further rainfall is critical to aid any recent improvement in conditions across the region.
• At the time of writing this Update the remnants of ex-tropical cyclone Kirrily is bringing rainfall to the far northwest of NSW. The effects of this system will be reported in the next update.
• The seasonal NDVI anomaly data shows that levels of plant greenness were variable across the region (Figure 22).
• There has been a significant improvement in the plant greenness values since the December update, with pastures and vegetation responding to follow up rain in January.
• Most areas in the south east are experiencing normal to higher than normal plant greenness levels.
• Areas with below average levels of greenness indicate low levels of ground cover and standing dry matter available for livestock.
• Some of the extremely negative NDVI areas (brown patches) represent water.

Drought indicators remain variable but have responded to recent rainfall.

• The Drought History charts show the individual response of the drought indicators for Bourke, Ivanhoe, Wentworth, and Broken Hill (Figure 23).
• The indicators remain strong at Ivanhoe and Wentworth, in response to recent rainfall.
• Bourke remains in the Drought Affected category however the indicators have responded well to recent rainfall over the past month. Follow up rainfall in the coming weeks will be needed to maintain the improvement in conditions.
• The Broken Hill parish has recently transitioned into the Non-Drought category. Follow up rainfall is crucial in ensuring that the region maintains the recent improvements and aid longer term recovery from drought.
• Producers continue to monitor conditions closely in conjunction with forecasts and outlooks.
• To access a Drought History chart for your Parish, visit the Seasonal Conditions Information Portal.

Figure 21. Combined Drought Indicator for the Western LLS region

Figure 22. 3-month NDVI anomaly map for the Western region

North West, Northern Tablelands and North Coast regions

Producers are continuing to focus on short to medium term management strategies for their productions systems.

• The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) shows that most of the three regions remain in the Drought Affected category at the end of January (Figure 24).
• Parts of the region have transitioned into the Recovery category over the past month.
• January rainfall was highly variable between farms and across the region. Generally, there was near average to above average for most of the region and lower than average rainfall was experienced to the west of the Armidale region and across to Narrabri.
• The rainfall has provided some relief from drought conditions and has slowed the drought intensification that has been occurring, particularly in the northern part of the region.
• Local reports suggest some areas are in a "green drought" with ample feed on hand but low or no surface water for livestock to utilise those pastures that have responded to rain events. Hot temperatures have also impacted some pastures.
• There are also reports of minimal rainfall runoff meaning surface water supply and availability is becoming an issue in some areas.
• Producers continue to monitor forecasts closely and implement drought management strategies as required for their enterprises, particularly through the remainder of summer and into autumn.
• The NSW DPI continues to closely monitor conditions in this region.
• The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 25) shows that levels of plant greenness were variable across the region. There has been a significant improvement in the plant greenness values since the December update, with pastures responding to follow up rain at certain locations in January.
• Most areas are experiencing normal to higher-than-normal plant greenness levels. Areas with below average levels of greenness indicate low levels of ground cover and standing dry matter available for livestock.
• The impacts of the December bushfire in the Pilliga Forest south of Narrabri are evident in this month’s Update.
• Some of the extremely negative NDVI areas (brown patches) represent water.

Drought indicators are varied across the regions.

• The Drought History charts (Figure 26) show the individual response of the drought indicators for Moree, Walgett Tenterfield and Lismore. All locations remain in the Drought Affected category.
• There has been a recent improvement in the underlying drought indicators at Tenterfield and Lismore.
• The drought indicators remain low at Walgett and Moree. Further substantial rainfall is needed to trigger any recovery from drought conditions across these regions.
• To access a Drought History chart for your Parish, visit the Seasonal Conditions Information Portal.

Figure 24.  Combined Drought Indicator for the North West, Northern Tableland and North Coast regions

Figure 25. 3-month NDVI anomaly map for the North West, Northern Tableland and North Coast regions

Central Tablelands, Central West, Hunter and Greater Sydney regions

Drought conditions continue to impact the regions

• The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) is variable across the four LLS regions (Figure 27).
• The area in the Recovery and Non-Drought categories has continued to expand in the south in response to well-timed follow up rainfall in the south of the region.
• Rainfall has helped ease drought conditions in other parts of the region, however further rainfall is needed to maintain the improved conditions and ensure a sustained recovery continues.
• Although there has been a pasture response to rainfall, soil water levels remain low. Producers are also monitoring farm water supplies as part of their drought management strategy.
• Parts of the Hunter and Greater Sydney LLS regions have seen the Drought category expand due to warmer conditions and lower January rainfall totals. Continued follow up rain in these regions will be needed to aid any longer-term improvement in conditions.
• Generally, pastures have responded to rain events, however hot conditions and low soil moisture levels are proving challenging. Further rainfall in the coming weeks will be critical to trigger an improvement in conditions.
• Producers continue to monitor forecasts closely and implement drought management strategies as required for their farm enterprises, particularly through the remainder of summer and into autumn.
• The NSW DPI continues to closely monitor conditions in this region.
• The seasonal NDVI anomaly data shows that levels of plant greenness were variable across the region (Figure 28).
• There has been an improvement in the plant greenness values since the December update for parts of the region as pastures respond to follow up rain. Most areas continue to experience normal to higher-than-normal plant greenness levels.
• Areas with below average levels of greenness indicate low levels of ground cover and standing dry matter available for livestock. The impacts of the December bushfire in the Pilliga Forest north of Coonabarabran are evident in this month’s Update.
• Some of the extremely negative NDVI areas (brown patches) represent water.

Drought indicators have responded to recent rainfall.

• The Drought History charts (Figure 29) show the individual response of the drought indicators for Cowra, Condobolin and Singleton.
• Cowra transitioned into the Non-Drought category during January and the underlying indicators show that it is well placed in the lead up to the autumn period.
• Condobolin have transitioned into the Recovery category during January. This is in response to good follow up rainfall over the past few months. Further rainfall will aid a longer-term recovery in this region.
• At Singleton, conditions remain steady since the December Update.
• Further rainfall in the coming weeks is needed to ensure conditions continue to improve at all locations.
• To access a Drought History chart for your Parish, visit the Seasonal Conditions Information Portal.

South East region

Drought conditions continue for parts of the South East region.  

• The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) shows approximately 45% of the region in the Drought or Drought Affected categories (Figure 30).
• Rainfall has aided an improvement in conditions however there is large variability in production conditions across the region. Some regions have responded well to recent rainfall and are close to or have transitioned into the Recovery category. Further rainfall will aid a longer-term recovery from drought conditions.
• Other regions have not shown a similar response to recent rainfall, and the rainfall has been ineffective in triggering a strong pasture growth response. The decision-making environment continues to be challenging for many farmers in the region.
• Producers continue to monitor forecasts closely and implement drought management strategies as required for their enterprises, particularly through the remainder of summer and into autumn.
• The NSW DPI continues to closely monitor conditions in this region.
• The seasonal NDVI anomaly data (Figure 31) shows that levels of plant greenness were variable across the region.
• There has been a significant improvement in the plant greenness values since the December update, with pastures responding to follow up rain in January. Most areas are experiencing normal to higher-than-normal plant greenness levels.
• Areas with below average levels of greenness indicate low levels of ground cover and standing dry matter available for livestock.
• Some of the extremely negative NDVI areas (brown patches) represent water.

Drought indicators are variable across the region.

• The Drought History charts show the individual response of the drought indicators at Bega, Cooma and Goulburn (Figure 32).
• The underlying drought indicators at Cooma and Goulburn have responded well to recent rainfall and further rainfall will aid a longer-term recovery period for these regions.
• The Rainfall Index is strong at Bega, in response to significant rainfall event in December. However, the rainfall has been ineffective in trigging a strong response in the Plant Growth and Soil Water Index.
• To access a Drought History chart for your Parish, visit the Seasonal Conditions Information Portal.

Figure 30. Combined Drought Indicator for the South East region

Figure 31. 3-month NDVI anomaly map for the South East region

How does it work?

The Combined Drought Indicator is one source of information that informs policy and Government responses to changing seasonal conditions, including drought. The map provides a snapshot of conditions at a point in time and is not used to determine eligibility for drought assistance measures offered by the NSW Government.

Much of the information in the Seasonal Conditions Report is sourced from the NSW DPI Enhanced Drought Information System (EDIS)™. The EDIS system is subject to an intensive ground truthing process. For more information, visit the interactive website via droughthub.nsw.gov.au.

EDIS is an ongoing project aimed at improving the quality and timeliness of efforts to monitor conditions across the state. Key features of the system are:

• It tracks drought by using four indicators; rainfall, soil water, plant growth, as well as tracing rainfall trends. Agronomic conditions have equal value to rainfall recorded at meteorological stations.
• The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) brings this information together and has been designed to characterise developing drought conditions. The key purpose for building the CDI was as a drought early warning system.
• The rainfall, soil moisture and plant growth indicators in EDIS account for conditions over a 12-month window. This provides a compromise between a highly sensitive indicator (e.g. six months) and a less sensitive indicator (e.g. 24 months).
• Climate and remote sensing data drive the information system at a high resolution, but the CDI is reported at a Parish level.
• Because of its configuration and purpose, there will be differences to the indicator used in the National Drought Monitoring Framework (the Australian Rainfall Deficiency Analyser) which relies on rainfall alone.
• The CDI has three drought categories that characterise NSW according to drought intensity as well as the main drivers of a drought event (meteorological, hydrological and agronomic). DPI considers areas Drought Affected to be experiencing a drought event.
• The Drought Affected category encompasses a wide range of conditions from the very early stages of drought entry through to a drought event becoming intense. This enables the drought monitoring system to detect a drought event early. It is also possible to stay in the Drought Affected category for some period of time.

The way in which the indicators are combined to form the CDI is described in Table 1 below.

Table 1: Description of the Combined Drought Indicator framework

The NSW State Seasonal Update is provided each month by the NSW DPI Climate Branch.

Information used in this report was primarily sourced from the Australian National University, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (Columbia University), Geoscience Australia’s Digital Earth Australia Program, and NSW Department of Primary Industries.

Maps in this document contain data which is © Spatial Services – NSW Department of Finance, Services and Innovation (2024), Panorama Avenue, Bathurst 2795 and data which is © Commonwealth of Australia 2023, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, and © Australian National University. All rights reserved.

The seasonal outlooks presented in this report are obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and other sources (including World Meteorological Organisation Global Producing Centres). These outlooks are general statements about the likelihood (chance) of (for example) exceeding the median rainfall or minimum or maximum temperatures. Such probability outlooks should not be used as categorical or definitive forecasts but should be regarded as tools to assist in risk management and decision making. Changes in seasonal outlooks may have occurred since this report was released.

All climate and remote sensing input data is supplied to the Enhanced Drought Information System™ under the Australian Creative Commons Licence (CCY 4.0) and is made available by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network.