Cropping

Wheat

Cotton

The value of NSW cropping industries was estimated to have decreased 19% year-on-year to an estimated $8.2 billion.⁶⁴ Production was lower for most crops, retreating back to more average production levels off the back of three consecutive years of record production. For many growers, total rainfall received during 2023-24 was well down on average. A combined El Niño event and positive Indian Ocean Dipole developed during spring, which resulted in dryer, warmer seasonal conditions – particularly in the northern cropping regions – limited winter crop yields and brought harvest in early across many regions. Decent rainfall during late spring and summer benefitted summer crops. Overall, total crop plantings were estimated to be down 6% year-on-year.⁶

Average domestic crop prices fell for all crops except pulses and sugarcane, which both benefited from strong global prices. Chickpeas were the standout performer price-wise, gaining 27% year-on-year to $796/tonne. Global coarse grains and oilseed production remained high, with favourable seasonal conditions across many of the major exporting countries generally outpacing demand, limiting the upside potential for prices. Barley prices eased 3% year-on-year to $376/tonne amid a substantial increase in global corn supplies which increased competition in global stock feed markets. Wheat prices fell by a more substantial 9% to $396/tonne, alongside falling global prices. Canola prices also came under pressure, falling 13% on average to $653/tonne reflecting lower than expected volatility in global canola production.⁶

The large fall in winter crop production meant cotton shared equal place with wheat as the largest GVP contributors to the NSW cropping sector, each contributing 29% share. Overall, total crop production was estimated down approximately 22% year-on-year.⁶

Cropping Gross Value of Production 2023-24

GVP 2023-24 est.
YOY % Change (RHS)

Download data (.XLSX)

Source: DPIRD (internal data)

Winter Crops

NSW Production Weighted Crop Price Index ^z

Cereals
Oilseeds
Pulses
Cotton

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Source: ABARES (2024)

The winter cropping season was characterised by highly variable regional differences in seasonal conditions, in particular, stark differences between the northern and southern cropping zones. Winter crop plantings declined 6% year-on-year, driven by a dryer seasonal outlook and forecast lower average grain and oilseed prices. Whilst subsoil moisture levels for NSW leading into sowing were mostly average to above average, conditions were drier in the north-east and north-west of the state, delaying sowing in some areas. Rainfall between April to October across the NSW wheat-sheep zone was below the long-term average and, in-line with the long-range prediction of warmer and drier conditions. The Bureau of Meteorology declared an El Niño on 19th September 2023.

Widespread late spring rainfalls across most of the NSW wheat/sheep zone during late October and November helped boost yields in the southern and central regions and went some way to limiting the impact of yield decline in the north.

Despite the challenging season for many regions, total winter crop production was estimated at 11.2 million tonnes, down 27% year-on-year, and 4% below 10 year average levels.⁶ The winter crop had a combined estimated value of $5.1 billion, down 27% on the year prior.

Summer Crops

The average to above average rainfall during late spring which provided late relief for some winter crops, also benefitted summer cropping operations, with root zone soil moisture generally very good at planting, although a little too late to benefit the planting window for some early sown summer crops in northern NSW. Despite the initial dryer than average outlook, the forecast at the onset of summer had shifted dramatically away from the drought conditions foreshadowed four months earlier. Summer rainfall was above average for many areas. Irrigated crops were able to benefit from ample water allocations, with the major southern MDB entitlements at the second highest level on record. Higher than expected December and January rainfall improved late-planting prospects for dryland cotton and sorghum and also provided a yield boost to early sown crops. Despite this, the total area planted to summer crops declined 6% year-on-year, driven by the initial dryer seasonal outlook and forecast lower average cotton prices.⁶ However, area planted was still well-up on the 10-year average.

Relatively dry conditions prevailed during the remainder of the growing season, facilitating a largely uninterrupted harvest with notably high yields in sorghum. Overall summer crop production increased by an estimated 22% to 3.2 million tonnes⁶. with higher plantings of rice and higher yields for cotton the major drivers behind the overall result. Overall, the summer crop had an estimated value of $3.1 billion in 2023-24, up 1% year on year.

Outlook

Conditions leading into the 2024-25 winter cropping season were excellent, with favourable winter and spring weather systems benefitting crop production which, at the time of writing, was forecast to be 43% above the 10-year moving average at 16.9 million tonnes, the third highest on record.⁶. Timely and effective rainfall for many parts of NSW has seen on-ground conditions continue to improve and production outlooks are positive for most key cropping areas with the exception of some areas in the South-East, Western, Riverina and Murray, which are continuing to experience rainfall deficits. Unseasonal late frosts did impact some southern regions however early indications are that yields for the 2024-25 winter crop harvest are above average.

Summer crop production for 2024-25 is also anticipated to be positive. The seasonal climate outlook for October to December notes likely median to above median seasonal rainfall totals (45% to 75% chance of exceeding median rainfall) and warmer than median temperatures across most of the state. Near full water storages will mean that most entitlements in the southern MDB had high opening allocations, though lower than 2023-24. Despite the largely favourable summer seasonal outlook, lower global cotton and rice prices are expected to drive a reduction in the area planted to cotton and rice. As a result, forecast summer crop area is forecast to decrease modestly by 5% year on year to 3.0 million tonnes.⁶