NSW Department of Primary Industries

Sheepmeat

  • GVP $1.2 billion est. Up 2% year-on-year.
  • NSW lamb production reached a new record high.
  • Prices were lower for most of the year however recovered strongly by the end of the year.
Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) estimated that the national flock reached its highest level since 2007 during the year reflecting a rapid rebuilding since the 2017-2020 drought. 92 During the first half of the year producers experienced a dry autumn and a forecast for a dry and hot summer. With the challenges of the recent drought still fresh in producers’ memory, many reacted by reducing stock numbers rather than feeding. Higher stock turnoff and some flock liquidation meant NSW sheepmeat production reached a new record high which was 32% above the 10-year average. 18 Whilst prices were lower during the year, especially at the end of 2023 when stock turn off reached a peak, a return of better seasonal conditions, increasing demand from processors and increased confidence meant prices for all categories of sheep ended the year higher.

Production

Lamb slaughter and production

  • Lamb production (tonnes, LHS)
  • Lamb slaughter ('000 head, RHS)
Download data (.XLSX)
Source: ABS Livestock Products (2024)
National lamb slaughter increased 21% to 27.5 million head, the highest level since records commenced in 1973. 18 Whilst NSW slaughter was not as up as strongly, up 9% to 5.9 million head (the highest since 1985), many southern NSW lambs were sold across the border for slaughter in Victoria. 18 MLA estimated that the national flock reached 79 million, its highest level since 2007. 92 However, the structure of the flock has changed since 2007 with a much higher proportion of breeding ewes focused on fat lamb production rather than wool leading to more lambs available for slaughter. NSW production was up 9% to a new record high of 151 thousand tonnes, 16% above the 10-year average. 18 Average carcase weights were flat at 25kg. 18 Notably, average carcase weights are 47% higher than average carcase weights in 1985 when slaughter levels were last this high in NSW as a result of genetic improvements and a greater focus on producing lambs for meat rather than wool. 18

NSW mutton slaughter was also up strongly to 3.7 million head, an increase of 29% year on year. 18 This was the highest level of mutton slaughter since 2009 and 58% above the 10 year average. 18 Production was also up 30% to 103 thousand tonnes. 18 Overall mutton slaughter and production remains well below the peaks achieved in the 1990’s and early 2000’s which also reflects the changing composition of the national flock.

Price

A dry Autumn and warnings of a hot dry summer spooked all red meat producers in the first half of the year resulting in a significant increase in supply and large falls in prices for all categories of sheep. Unlike the beef industry, however, sheepmeat slaughter capacity has matched the increase in flock size. Whilst this didn’t completely insulate sheep producers from the significant price volatility experienced at the beginning of the year, it did mean lamb prices did not fall quite as far as beef prices and also supported a very strong price recovery in the second half of the year.
At the peak of the supply surge in autumn, the National Trade Lamb Indicator (NTLI) fell 24% from the closing price in 2023-24 to $4.33/kg cwt, 93 This was the lowest price for the NTLI since 2013. The National Mutton Indicator (NMI) fared even worse, falling 70% to $1.04/kg cwt, the lowest since 2007. 93 However, as better seasonal conditions emerged both price indices recovered quickly, the NTLI increased 72% from its lows to close the year at $7.42 kg/cwt whilst the NMI more than doubled from its lows, up 227% to $3.38/kg cwt. 93 On average, prices were lower in 2023-24, down 44% for the NMI and 20% for the NTLI. 93

Sheep Slaughter vs Flock size ('million head)

  • Rolling 12 month slaughter (LHS)
  • Slaughter 10yr average (LHS)
  • Flock size, MLA est (RHS)
  • Flock size 10 year average (RHS)
Download data (.XLSX)
Source: MLA Projections (2024) , MLA Statistics (2024)

Sheep and lamb prices (cents/kg cwt)

  • ESTLI
  • NMI
  • ESTLI (10 year average)
  • NMI (10 year average)
Download data (.XLSX)
Source: MLA Statistics (2024)

Trade

With production at record highs sheepmeat national exports also reached record highs. Overall Australian sheepmeat exports were up 26% to 632 thousand tonnes. 79 Lower unit prices meant overall value was up 7.6% to $4.8 billion. 79 Average export prices fell 15% to $7.60/kg, the lowest since 2018, reflecting a weaker global economy which impacted demand for higher priced lamb. 79 In NSW, exports increased 16% to 170 thousand tonnes a record high. Export value decreased 8% to $1.2 billion. 79 China remains NSW’s largest market though value of exports fell 25% to $432 million as the Chinese economy struggled. 79 For overall Australian exports, the United States is comfortably the largest destination for sheepmeat exports. Exports to the US grew 7% to $1.2 billion as the rise in domestic US beef prices made lamb relatively more affordable. 79

Sheepmeat exports

  • Australian sheepmeat exports (tonnes)
  • 10 year average
Download data (.XLSX)
Source: GTA (2024)

Outlook

The re-emergence of drier conditions in early 2023-24 created significant price volatility during the year. However, the rapid recovery in prices following a return of more normal seasonal conditions is a testament to the resilience of demand for Australian sheepmeat. Despite weaker global economic conditions exports reached a record high and are now well above the 10-year average. More importantly, exports to key premium markets such as the United States remain very robust. The sheep flock in New Zealand, our largest export competitor, continues to shrink. Confidence in the outlook for sheepmeat exports is reflected in the fact that processors continue to invest in lifting capacity which is now at record levels. MLA forecasts a drop in the flock size in 2024-25. 92 In the short term this may mean higher supply as older breeding stock and wool sheep are processed. This higher supply is evident in a lower NMI which is currently below the 10-year average. However, with slaughter capacity at record levels and continued strong demand for lamb, the NTLI is well above 10-year averages. There is also growing international demand for Australian sheepmeat, including from the United Kingdom with the new Free Trade Agreement with the United Kingdom (A-UKFTA) now in force. Although the UK is currently a relatively small market (currently Australia’s 9th biggest market) the removal of tariffs over the next 10 years creates significant opportunity for market expansion.

DPIRD Initiatives in Focus

mRNA vaccine for emergency animal diseases

A pilot project to fast-track emergency animal disease vaccines and help protect the state's livestock industries, has reached a major milestone with an mRNA vaccine successfully manufactured for the first time in NSW.

mRNA

NSW DPIRD's scientist, Blaine Farrugia, evaluates emergency animal disease vaccines at the Elizabeth Macarthur Agricultural Institute, supporting NSW’s commitment to safeguard livestock from key biosecurity threats. Credit: John Webster NSW DPIRD

Cutting-edge emergency animal disease vaccine reaches a major milestone A pilot project to fast-track cutting-edge emergency animal disease vaccines has reached a major milestone with an mRNA vaccine for border disease virus (BDV) successfully manufactured for the first time in NSW.

The BDV vaccine was manufactured in Sydney by the UNSW RNA Institute after first being developed by US-based biotechnology leader, Tiba Biotech, with input from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA), NSW Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRD), Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, Meat & Livestock Australia and the NSW RNA Pilot Facility. The vaccine design was optimised and demonstrated to be efficacious by NSW DPIRD scientists at the Elizabeth Macarthur Agricultural Institute.

While BDV is not an emergency animal disease, the learnings from this successful pilot project are now being applied to the development of vaccines for lumpy skin disease (LSD) and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), from which Australia remains free.

Economic costs of a large multi-state outbreak of FMD alone have been estimated at more than $80 billion over 10 years Australia-wide, which is why the NSW Government is working with state, territory and national governments and animal industries to safeguard livestock from these key biosecurity threats.

The project team are now investigating whether virus targets identified by the CFIA are suitable for a vaccine against LSD when combined with the novel RNA formulation technology.

All work with exotic viruses is being conducted overseas, while NSW DPIRD scientists at the Elizabeth Macarthur Agricultural Institute work on , demonstrating animal safety and optimising the formulation and dose by evaluating the immune responses of cattle and sheep.

Australian regulatory authorities have very strict standards to demonstrate that the vaccine will be cleared from the animal very rapidly and that there is no safety risk to people.

Work so far indicates that the test LSD mRNA vaccine is quickly metabolised and cleared from the animal.

Biosecurity risks present the most pressing threat to the state’s primary industries sector, with flow-on impacts to our environment and communities.

www.dpi.nsw.gov.au