As always, seasonal conditions were a significant driver of GVP for agricultural commodities. Conditions at the beginning of the year were dry although there was considerable variation across the state. Some parts of NSW, such as the Hunter, were experiencing lack of rainfall on par with the 2017-2020 drought. Furthermore, the Bureau of Meteorology’s medium-term outlook was for a higher chance of dry and hot weather over late spring and summer for most of NSW. This created an uncertain environment for producers in the first half of the year.

Livestock producers responded to these conditions with a significant increase in stock sales. The increase in supply overwhelmed restocker demand and processing capacity which was still rebuilding following an extended period of herd and flock rebuilding. Prices for some categories of livestock fell to levels not experienced for decade. Fortunately, seasonal conditions in the second half of the year were much better than expected and prices recovered sharply. Nevertheless, average prices over the year were lower than 2022-23. Higher slaughter rates thanks to herd and flock rebuilding in recent years combined with higher poultry, egg and dairy production, supported a 2% increase in Livestock GVP to $7.9 billion which was 15% above the 10-year average. ⁶⁴

The cropping sector was also impacted by drier conditions albeit on the back of consecutive record seasons. Winter crop plantings were down 6% and with the dry conditions continuing through the harvest in many areas, overall winter crop production fell 27%. This was marginally below the 10-year average. Prices also fell, primarily due to increased global grains supplies. However, the improved seasonal conditions in the second half of the year and high water allocations for irrigators supported summer crop production. Summer crop GVP rose 1% whereas winter crop GVP fell 27%. Overall cropping GVP was down 19% to $8.2 billion though this was 27% above the 10-year average. ⁶⁴ Horticulture GVP rose 4% to $3.4 billion which was 43% above the 10-year average. ⁶⁴ . The horticulture sector is predominantly focused on servicing the domestic market and is typically less exposed to seasonal conditions which supports more stable production. Horticulture GVP has proven to be the least cyclical agriculture sector over the last 10 years. The sector benefitted from a lower number of natural disasters and lower prices for some key inputs such as fertiliser. These factors supported a modest increase in production.

Fisheries GVP decreased 0.5% to $205 million, due to the impact of white spot disease on prawn farming. However farmed oyster continued to achieve solid growth, up 6% to $52 million and aquaculture generally is now the largest contributor to NSW fisheries GVP. Forestry GVP was down 8% to $389 million primarily due to to lower demand for housing. However the lifting of a Chinese trade ban on Australian softwood imports supported exports which rose 27%.

Although 2023-24 presented the industry with many challenges, including reduced rainfall, volatile farmgate prices and biosecurity concerns, this strong result demonstrates the resilience of primary industries in NSW. The NSW Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRD) is supporting the primary industries sector through a range of investments and programs to strengthen the sector in NSW. A number of examples of DPIRD’s current activities and programs can be found throughout the commodity pages of this publication.

The outlook for 2023-24 is also positive. Red meat prices have recovered from the lows of last year. Both the sheepmeat and beef processing sectors have continued to invest in increased capacity which will support demand for livestock. Higher flock and herd numbers will support stock turnoff, and livestock production is expected to increase. Whilst there continues to be some global economic uncertainty which is impacting consumer demand there is also lower global red meat supply which will help support demand for NSW red meats in export markets. The cropping sector is benefiting from better seasonal conditions and winter crop plantings are higher relative to last year. Initial indications are also supportive for improved yields. Although summer crops are yet to be planted, a positive outlook for rainfall over summer from the Bureau of Meteorology and high water allocations should support production. The initial forecast is for GVP to increase 14% in 2024-25 to $22.8 billion.