El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Issued 6 August 2024

• The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status is currently neutral.
• The Bureau's ENSO Outlook is at La Niña Watch, due to signs that an La Niña event might form in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024. A La Niña Watch does not guarantee that a La Niña will develop.
• Oceanic and atmospheric indicators remain neutral.
• Although ENSO forecast skill has historically increased after mid-autumn, model forecasts are still showing a spread of possible conditions.

Model agreement

• The figure below shows forecasts from international models for sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region for 9 overlapping 3-month periods. For more information on this figure visit the Columbia International Research Institute for Climate and Society website.
• There is wide variation in the model forecasts, particularly across the longer timeframes.  Most of these models suggests that the cooling trend could continue over the coming months, with several meeting thresholds (0.5°C) that the American meteorological agencies use to indicate a La Niña state.
• DPIRD’s advice is to continue to monitor conditions closely over the coming months and refer to the wider variety of indicators and thresholds used by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to track ENSO and its impacts on seasonal climate in Australia.