El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) value as reported by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)  is currently -0.3°C (Niño3.4 region; as of 2 March 2025).

Model agreement

• The figure below shows forecasts from international models for sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region for 9 overlapping 3-month periods (issued 19 February 2025). For more information on this figure visit the Columbia International Research Institute for Climate and Society website.
• There is variation in the model forecasts, however most of these models suggests ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña conditions over coming months (March to May 2025).
• The skill of the forecasts generally decreases the further in advance the forecast period.
• Note that the threshold used by the American meteorological agencies used to indicate a La Niña state is -0.5°C where the Bureau of Meteorology threshold is -0.8°C.

DPIRD’s advice is to continue to monitor conditions closely over the coming months and refer to the wider variety of indicators and thresholds used by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to track ENSO and its impacts on seasonal climate in Australia