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Pork

GVP $229.6 million est. Down 8.8% year-on-year.
Production for 2021-22 decreased 5% to 61,644 tonnes (cwt).^a
Exports decreased year-on-year to 5,619 tonnes (swt)^b a 4% in value terms to $20.7 million.

Pork production decreased in 2021-22 to total 61,644 tonnes (cwt)^a, 5% lower year-on-year. Production included 824,100 head processed ¹⁹⁶, 6% lower than in 2020-21, while the average carcase weight increased marginally to 74.8 kg.^a Pig prices realised in 2021-22 were up slightly over the previous year, with the annual Eastern benchmark prices averaging 1% higher at 391 cents per kilogram for porkers and baconers averaging 353 cents per kilogram, 2% higher than in 2020-21.¹⁹⁹

Global trade has been influenced by the recovery of the Chinese pork industry through 2021 from African Swine Fever (ASF), requiring major pork exporters (United States, EU, Canada and Brazil) to shift exports to alternate markets. While US exports have been limited due to high domestic prices, major EU exporters are expected to focus on alternate valuable markets including Japan, South Korea, and Australia.²⁰⁴

Domestically, while consumption of pork is robust, producers remain constrained in part by production costs including feed costs, with high global grain markets. While managing biosecurity issues such as Japanese Encephalitis Virus and continued vigilance to prevent ASF incursions will remain important issues for the industry.

Production

Pork production decreased in 2021-22 to total 61,644 tonnes^a, 5 % lower year-on-year. This production was derived from the processing of 824,100 head, 6 % lower than in 2020-21, with total production benefiting from an increase in the average carcase weight to 74.8 kg compared to 73.4 kg cwt in 2020-21.¹⁹⁶

Sow numbers were relatively stable, with sow slaughter rates marginally lower nationally for the year to June 2022, down 1.7% compared to the 2020-21 year and following the industry’s contraction from the recent production peak in 2017-18.¹⁵⁸ The number of sows per farm in NSW increased to 171 sows in 2020-21. In comparison, the national average number of sows per farm was 272 sows/farm¹⁹⁵ reflecting continued consolidation amongst larger operators across the industry.

Price

Pig prices were up slightly in 2021-22 over the previous year, with the annual Eastern benchmark prices averaging just 1% higher at 391 cents per kilogram for porkers and baconers averaging 353 cents per kilogram, 2% higher than in 2020-21.¹⁹⁹ There are indications that the pork price cycle typically in the order of 5 to 7 years, normally reflecting the biological lags and producer responses to price signals, has shortened recently with cyclical price peaks noted at the start of 2017 and 2020. This is likely a result of several factors including African Swine Fever, COVID-19 and rapid demand growth.¹⁹⁸ Importantly feed costs trended higher through the year following the strong prices for grains experienced globally. While the relative feed price to pork price was not as extreme as that experienced by pig producers during the drought years 2018 to 2020, given that feed costs represent the major cost category for producers, typically 60% of operating costs,²⁰² it does have a substantial impact on producer’s production intentions.

Domestic consumption of pork continued to be supported by favourable consumer prices relative to other red meats which have experienced decreasing domestic consumption on a per capita basis. At the consumer level, the price of pork, as measured by the consumer price index, increased by 4% over 12 months to the June quarter 2022. In contrast, beef and lamb prices increased by 9% and 7% respectively.¹⁹⁷ Consumption of pork in Australia is anticipated to average 28.1 kg per capita in 2021-22, representing a 10% increase over the last ten years.¹⁹²¹⁹³

Feed and pig price indexes and NSW pig production ²⁰¹¹⁹⁶¹⁹⁹

Feed price index
Carcase price index
Pig Meat (t cw, RHS)

Download data (.XLSX)

Australian meat consumption trends¹⁹²¹⁹³

Beef and Veal kg (cw)
Lamb and Mutton kg (cw)
Pig meat kg (cw)
Chicken meat kg (cw)

Download data (.XLSX)

Trade

Value

Volume

Pork Export Markets (by Value and Volume) for 2021-22³⁵

Singapore
New Zealand
Papua New Guinea
Philippines
South Korea
Other

Download data (.XLSX)

Pork Export Markets (by Value and Volume) for 2021-22³⁵

Singapore
New Zealand
Papua New Guinea
Philippines
South Korea
Other

Download data (.XLSX)

With production decreasing in 2021-22, the volume of pork products exported also decreased in volume terms over the prior year to 5,619 tonnes (swt)^b, a 8% decrease over 2021-22. Exports in value terms decreased 4% over 2020-21, to total $20.7 million, the decrease moderated by a marginally higher average unit export price of $3,676 per tonne in 2021-22 compared to an average unit price $3,514/tonne for the prior year.³⁵

The principal export destinations for NSW pork by value included Singapore and New Zealand representing $8.8 million and $3.0 million respectively. Of note, New Zealand exports increased 25% in value terms over 2020-21, while the volume of pork decreased 13% from 2020-21 to 912 tonnes.^b The price of New Zealand exports increased substantially to average $4,069 per tonne.^b Although smaller in value terms exports to Papua New Guinea increased to $2.7 million, 150% higher than the prior year. In the case of export volumes, Philippines was the major market with 1,356 tonnes^b, while exports to Singapore, which takes higher value product lines, totalled 953 tonnes^b, in 2021-22. Pork exports to Vietnam, a principal market for NSW pork in 2020-21, decreased substantially to total just 160 tonnes^b in 2021-22, a 89% decrease from the prior year, with Brazil lifting pork exports to the country.³⁵²⁰⁴

The value of pork imports increased by 26% year-on-year in 2021-22, to total A$220.0 million, eclipsing the two prior years. Amongst the major suppliers of imports, United States pork imports decreased substantially, down 58% in volume terms year-on-year to 6,044 tonnes^b in 2021-22. This was likely in part, a result of tight US pork supplies and high US domestic prices, making United States pork less competitive.¹⁵⁶ Making up this shortfall, Denmark and the Netherlands increased imports by 99% and 109% in volume terms respectively in 2021-22 year-on-year. Similarly, the value of imports from Denmark and the Netherlands increased to total A$95.6 million and A$61.2 million respectively in 2021-22.³⁵

Macroeconomic Conditions

A major driver of pork markets globally is the continued recovery of China from the African Swine Fever (ASF). ASF caused production in China to fall by a third in 2020, in response, global trade reorientated to supply pork to China, impacting pork and meat markets globally. The four largest pig exporters United States, European Union, Canada, and Brazil, were providing between 29% and 55% share of their exports to China in 2020. China’s pork industry commenced its recovery in production through 2021, with 2022 domestic production expected to be 40% above the severely impacted 2020 year, substantially reducing demand for pork imports. Consequently, these major exporters have been seeking alternate markets for pork, although total exports are still expected to decrease by 4% in 2022.²⁰⁴

Increasing demand for animal proteins remains an important theme, with middle income and developing economies supporting demand globally as incomes in these countries rise. However, in the near-term, reductions in disposable incomes, a consequence of inflationary pressures that are apparent, may cap demand and consumers’ willingness to pay for higher quality animal proteins.¹⁹⁴

Outlook

Despite the strengthening recovery of the Chinese pork industry from ASF, the virus continues to threaten major pork producing regions including western Europe where cases continue to be detected.²⁰³ Commercial vaccines for ASF are being developed which will provide an important management tool for industry globally.²⁰⁵

Major producers such as the European Union, who represent the main source of Australian pork imports are expected to remain highly competitive in the Australian market, with their focus shifted from supplying China toward supplying key Asian markets such as Japan and South Korea as well as Australia.²⁰⁴

While domestic consumption of pork is robust, producers remain constrained in part by production costs, with global grain markets at elevated levels reflecting demand for staple food commodities, concerns over supply resulting from geopolitical unrest and poor growing conditions in key production regions such as North America. The Australian pig industry will continue to remain vigilant to biosecurity risks such as ASF, as well as to managing Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) which has impacted a number of pig farms in Australia with potential production losses in 2022²⁰⁰ further adding to production costs.

Stronger Primary Industries Strategy

Japanese encephalitis management

Japanese encephalitis (JE) was confirmed in piggeries in NSW, Victoria and Queensland in February 2022 and South Australia in March. By the end of May 2022, JE infected 79 piggeries in Qld (17), NSW (30), Vic (23) and SA (9).

All confirmed NSW cases of JE in pigs were detected in inland regional areas, predominantly along water courses and west of the Great Dividing Range.

Strategic Outcome

Biosecure Industries and Environment

NSW’s Chief Veterinary Officer issued a May 2022 bulletin which reported 26 horses with probable JE and four horses as possible cases. No horses have been definitively confirmed with JE, but clinical signs and test results suggested probable or possible JE infection.

JE is not a food safety concern. Commercially produced pork meat or pork products are safe to consume.

Why is JE a concern?  

JE is an acute mosquito-borne viral disease that can cause reproductive losses and encephalitis in susceptible species. The disease occurs mostly in pigs and horses and can rarely cause disease in people. Animals and people become infected through the bite of infected mosquitoes.  Other species can be infected but do not always exhibit disease including, horses, cattle, dogs, sheep, alpacas and goats which are dead-end hosts, which do not pass the virus on.   

The normal JE lifecycle is between waterbirds and mosquitos, which may transfer to pigs and horses.

Current NSW situation   

All infected properties have been resolved in NSW. The NSW JE control order expired on 17 June 2022 and now JE is an ongoing NSW DPI animal biosecurity management program, in conjunction with NSW Health and the national strategy, which includes surveillance and management of the disease in animals and people.

JE is a nationally notifiable disease and is classified as prohibited matter under the NSW Biosecurity Act 2015. Producers and animal owners should immediately report any unusual signs of disease or death in pigs, horses or other livestock to the Emergency Animal Disease Hotline, 1800 675 88.

How do producers manage JE? 

National policy is to control JE in domestic animals to support public health agencies and industries.  Management strategies include: 

Early recognition and laboratory confirmation of cases
Coordination and cooperation with public health response activities 
Ongoing mosquito monitoring, management and control in high-risk areas 
Risk assessment of JE cases and development of management plans to minimise the risk of spread.

NSW DPI and LLS work with NSW Health and national agencies in delivering mosquito and JE surveillance programs, proactive planning and preparedness. 

Currently, Australia has no effective treatment for JE in animals. The best way to protect animals is by developing and implementing an integrated mosquito management plan, which targets all stages of the mosquito life cycle to break the breeding cycle. Vaccination is recommended for people in high-risk groups.

Cooler months present an opportunity to review production and land management practices, develop a mosquito management plan for your property and farming situation and prepare for the next mosquito season.